• TBI Middle East polling shows that US and China are now tied as a preferred partner in many Middle East countries and just one in ten people in the region would prefer their country to partner with the UK  
  • To counter this the TBI is calling on the West to build new partnerships including by encouraging Middle Eastern countries to join international institutions such as the Commonwealth 

It is time for the West to ‘stop taking the Middle East for granted’, according to a new report by the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change (TBI). 
 
In  ‘How Not to Lose Friends and Influence in the Middle East: The Narratives Advancing Russia and China’s Soft Power’, TBI experts draw on comprehensive polling in the region to demonstrate how concerted Chinese and Russian efforts have been effective in building influence. 

This has led to the US losing vital battles in international institutions such as the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)+, which rebuffed President Biden and supported Russia by agreeing to cut oil production at a time of rising prices in the United States. 

Chinese President Xi Jinping’s three-day visit to the Middle East and attendance at the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) last week brought this into sharp focus for the West. The meetings resulted in greater cooperation on key strategic areas, such as nuclear energy and space, with President Xi and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia also agreeing to advance their separate “comprehensive strategic partnership”. 

Polling carried out in seven Middle East countries following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine found that countries like the US and UK are viewed more favourably than is often assumed, but that China is viewed just as positively as the US. While Russian favourability is inconsistent across countries, it’s investment in places like Iraq is leading to greater influence among its population.   

Countries like the UK and France with strong ties and long histories in the Middle East are not priorities for the people of the Middle East, with just one in ten people in the region preferring their country to partner with the UK.  

As a part of their economic and security strategies for the Middle East, Russia and China have also invested substantially in sophisticated media platforms aimed at expanding knowledge of their respective countries amongst the region’s people and embedding strategic narratives. 

While China is not seeking to replace the US militarily in the Middle East, it is nevertheless capitalising on the US desire to pivot away from the region. 

This necessitates a more proactive, coherent and substantive approach by the West that supports meaningful and reliable partnerships in security, trade and culture. 

Proposals in the paper include that: 

  • The UK and its allies should work to better integrate Middle East states into international institutions, including through membership in the Commonwealth, and enhance the opportunities presented by the Abraham Accords.  
  • The West should redouble its support for objective media platforms which have long served the Middle East. This includes reversing decisions such as the £28.5m cuts leading to reduced BBC Arabic and BBC Persian services. 
  • The US and the UK should join with Europe in underpinning a new Middle East, region-wide research fund to support student mobility, early career grants and major research grants.  

TBI Middle East policy expert Emman el-Badawy said: 

“The Middle East is one of the world’s youngest regions and will be an epicentre of economic dynamism this century. 

“And TBI polling shows that Western and Middle Eastern cultural and economic values are becoming more aligned. 

“However, there is a real sense in the region that the US and its allies have rested on their laurels in recent years, as evidenced by the so-called US pivot to Asia. 

“President Xi’s visit to the Middle East and the signing of formal co-operation agreements last week underlines that the West risks falling behind. 

“It is up to the West to respond to that challenge and stop taking influence in the Middle East for granted. The US and its allies need to make a renewed effort to rebuild partnerships and counter disinformation.” 

-Ends-

Methodology

Face-to-face polling in the Middle East was carried out by Zogby Research Services between 17 March and 7 April 2022, with 6,934 adults surveyed across seven Arab countries: Egypt: 1,043; Iraq: 1,044; Lebanon: 857; Libya: 839; Palestine (Gaza, Jerusalem and the West Bank): 1,239; Saudi Arabia: 1,043; and Tunisia: 869. Polling was conducted with regional representation in mind. The raw data for the survey results can be found on our Middle East polling platform: https://new-middle-east-polling.institute.global 

The Tony Blair Institute for Global Change supports political leaders and governments to build open, inclusive and prosperous societies in a globalised world. We do this by developing policy advice and solutions and directly advising governments.      

For more information or to speak to the report authors contact media.bids@institute.global or p.swift@institute.global.