Why its too soon to write off Trump

With the US Senate making final preparations for February’s impeachment trial of Donald Trump, the odds are growing that not only will he be acquitted, but also that he could run for the presidency in 2024.

Trump is a precedent-shattering politician and will care little that only one president in US history has been elected in non-consecutive terms (Grover Cleveland, in 1884 and 1892).

To be sure, if sensational new evidence comes to light in the trial, there remains an outside possibility that Trump will be convicted of inciting his supporters to mount an insurrection at the US Capitol. But 45 of the 50 Republican senators voted last week to stop the trial before it even starts, and 17 of them would need to break ranks and vote with the 50 Democrats to convict the president with a two-thirds majority. That is unlikely, although there are other possible ways Trump may be disqualified from running again.

One option being considered by centrist Republicans and Democrats is a censure vote that would bar Trump from holding future office, requiring only a simple majority. But legal opinion is divided over whether such a censure would definitely prohibit Trump from running again, since the constitution appears to give Congress authority only to punish its own members, except for the power of impeachment. Some legal scholars insist that such a censure would be nonbinding, and the issue may ultimately need judicial resolution if Trump were to run again in 2024.

While it is by no means certain that Trump is gearing up for another shot at the White House, this possibility would grow if he is acquitted by a wide margin. Legal barriers aside, there are no insuperable personal or political obstacles.

In 2024, Trump will be about the same age as Joe Biden is now. And in refusing to concede last November’s election, his game plan for winning power again may well be to try to emulate the 1828 campaign of Andrew Jackson, an insurgent president many have compared him to.

In 1824, Jackson came close to winning the presidency by securing the most electoral votes, but not enough for the necessary majority in a field of four candidates. In what Jackson’s supporters denounced as a “corrupt bargain,” the House of Representatives elected John Quincy Adams as president, despite Jackson’s electoral college advantage. Jackson went on to win the presidency in 1828 and 1832.

While the circumstances of Trump’s loss to Biden are different, he has sought to nurture a similar sense of grievance, despite Biden’s clear win in both the popular vote and the electoral college.

Despite the many debacles of Trump’s presidency, he would be a formidable contender for the Republican nomination in 2024. While he lost in November, he performed above the expectations set by polls that had pointed to a possible landslide for Biden, and won more votes than he did in 2016.

The other reason Trump could do well is his advantage over rivals. History indicates patterns to previous races that point to success for the former president. The eventual nominee of both major parties frequently leads national polls of party identifiers on the eve of the first presidential nomination ballot in Iowa, and raises more campaign finance than any other candidate in the 12 months before election year. On both these counts, Trump could be very strong.

From 1980 to 2020, the winner in about half the contested Democrat and Republican nomination races was the early front runner by both of these measures. Moreover, in at least four partial exceptions to this pattern, eventual presidential nominees led the rest of the field on one of the two measures, including Biden in 2020 and Trump in 2016.

However, even if Trump were to win the Republican nomination again, he would not be certain to win back the presidency. Much would depend on the success of Biden’s presidency, and whether he stands for reelection in his eighties.

Another key factor that will influence Republican prospects of winning back the White House will be whether, and how quickly, the party can unite around its eventual nominee, given the debate between moderate, centrist Republicans and pro-Trump insurgents over future direction. While the circumstances of 2024 will be different from 2020, a rancorous, divisive Republican nomination contest may only benefit Biden (or the eventual Democratic presidential nominee) in four years.

• Andrew Hammond is an Associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics