Germanys lackluster poll suddenly gets interesting

At last, the seemingly interminable German parliamentary campaign is limping to an end, with the vote scheduled for Sept. 26. To put it mildly, it has been an odd election, with a succession of mediocre front-runners seemingly doing all they can to sabotage their chances of succeeding Angela Merkel.

Going into the contest, it looked like a neck-and-neck race between the long-ruling center-right Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union coalition and the upstart, but surging, Green party. Whichever the victor, the odds-on outcome was for them to form a two-party coalition, which while more environmentally minded, would not amount to a major change in German politics.

But all this was without reckoning on both parties’ death instincts. First, Annalena Baerbock, chancellor candidate for the surging Greens, has proven herself not quite ready for prime time. A youthful 40 years of age, she has been plagued by hesitant campaign performances and a plagiarism scandal involving a hastily written book. Her standing, and that of her party, has suffered, with all the pre-election momentum being blunted.

But the CDU-CSU failed to take advantage of Baerbock’s stumbles. Instead, their candidate, the bland Armin Laschet, head of the powerful North Rhine-Westphalia province, has proven to be equally, if not more, destructive. At the end of July, Laschet was forced to apologize for plagiarism himself and his unconscionable response to deadly flooding in his own state.

Laschet was caught on camera laughing and joking during a visit to a town devastated by floods that killed more than 180 people. Unaware the cameras were rolling, he seemed to reveal his callous true self. Following the incident, polling by ZDF showed a 12-point slide in his approval rating. Laschet’s seeming glide to victory had been derailed by this incredible act of self-sabotage.

All this needless political self-destruction has caught up with the two front-running parties. A mid-August Politico poll found the CDU/CSU at a new low of 25 percent, the Greens trending downward at 19 percent, the center-left Social Democrats (SPD) just behind at 18 percent, the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) at 12 percent, and the far-right AfD lurking at 11 percent. Amid all the electoral confusion, one thing is clear. The notion that a two-party coalition will govern Germany has gone out the window. Instead, the electoral math makes it apparent a far weaker government of three parties or more is on the cards.

This may be the real, untold story of the German election. The economic powerhouse and dominant state in Europe will now be saddled with a bulky, weak, three-party government for the foreseeable future. Germany’s already glacial policy responses to global events will slow further, leaving the country even more inward-looking. It is the last thing either Germany or Europe needs.

As the two front-runners have faded, SPD challenger Olaf Scholz, the uncharismatic but competent finance minister in the present CDU-SPD ruling coalition, has benefited merely by having his party’s ratings tread water while his two competitors have been imploding. Scholz has cleverly hitched his wagon to the broadly liked Merkel government, calmly stating that if he becomes chancellor, there are a lot of policies that will remain the same. Hiding under the mantle of Merkel’s steadiness — beloved by Germans despite her palpable lack of policy accomplishments — Scholz finds himself within striking distance of both Baerbock and Laschet.

Fully one quarter of the unenthused German electorate has yet to decide who to vote for; given the manifest self-destruction of the CDU-CSU and the Greens, that is easily understandable. However, the horse race aspects of the German election are not the real story here. In self-sabotaging, the CDU and the Greens have seen to it that a three-party coalition is necessary, one that will keep Germany a policy-free zone well into the future.


• John C. Hulsman is the president and managing partner of John C. Hulsman Enterprises, a prominent global political risk consulting firm. He is also a senior columnist for City AM, the newspaper of the City of London. He can be contacted via chartwellspeakers.com.