Germanys electoral math adds up to a policy-free zone

In political risk terms, we already know the outcome of the pivotal Sept. 26 German election, weeks before it even takes place: Germany will have an unwieldy three-party coalition and nothing will get done. That is because the math is the most important factor in assessing the outcome, not the horse race.

How can I be so sure of this political result, which will determine the policies of Europe’s most important country? My theory is that we must sideline the horse race and instead look at how Germany is actually governed.

The incredible acts of self-sabotage of the erstwhile front-running center-right Christian Democratic Union-Christian Social Union chancellor candidate Armin Laschet and the center-left Green Party candidate Annalena Baerbock have directly led to the cratering of both their parties in the polls — they have no one to blame but themselves. The collapse of the poll numbers of both favorites creates the need for Germany’s first three-way governing coalition in more than 60 years, as that will be the only way any sort of governing majority can be formed, given that no single party has support that rises above the level of a quarter of the electorate.

Going into the summer, the outcome of the election seemed fairly clear: The surging center-left Greens would probably be just pipped at the post by the long-ruling CDU and the two would form a stable, grand coalition. But conventional wisdom did not reckon on the death instincts of both Laschet and Baerbock.

Laschet — the colorless premier of the industrial powerhouse North Rhine-Westphalia province — narrowly saw off his more popular rival, the CSU’s Markus Soeder, to become the CDU-CSU chancellor candidate. Suffice it to say, throughout the campaign Laschet has confirmed the reasons for his unpopularity. Most importantly, in July, Laschet was caught on camera laughing and joking at a memorial service for the 180-plus victims of Germany’s recent flash floods in the town of Erftstadt, in his home province.

This utterly inappropriate behavior became a staple of national television news for days, showing Laschet to be callous, unfeeling and utterly self-involved. No number of apologies could walk back this disastrous image, which seemed to show the very unattractive core of the man with the political mask off. Accordingly, both Laschet’s and the CDU’s poll numbers went into freefall.

But Baerbock’s Greens have fared little better. Accused by the press of puffing up her CV, Baerbock really went off the rails when it was discovered that she had also plagiarized — one wonders why German leaders habitually seem to do this — her recent shoddily sourced book. Baerbock went from being seen as the face of the future to just one more untrustworthy German politician. Unsurprisingly, her numbers, and those of her party, also tumbled.

The unlikely beneficiary of all these acts of self-harm was Olaf Scholz, the quiet, competent and unassuming chancellor candidate of the center-left Social Democratic Party. Currently serving as finance minister in Angela Merkel’s CDU-SPD governing grand coalition, he has cagily said he will continue to follow many of the (relatively) popular government’s policies. Much like Joe Biden in the US, Scholz is the moderate, acceptable face to middle-of-the-road voters who would otherwise be fearful of his leftist party and who are endeared to him by his uncharacteristically tight fiscal policies.

All of these factors have led to a political earthquake. At the end of August, a Forsa poll found the SPD ahead of the CDU-CSU for the first time in 15 years, just a month before the vote. The SPD is at 23 percent, the CDU 22 percent, and the fading Greens 18 percent. This is the lowest rating for the conservatives since Forsa polling began in 1984.

If Scholz does indeed pull off the upset, he will have two governing choices. First, a red-red-green coalition with the Greens and the far-left Die Linke party, which is the remnant of the former East German communists. This would be an ideologically incoherent grouping, in that Die Linke calls for Germany’s immediate exiting of NATO, as well as nationalizing everything in sight — opinions far beyond pale of the German political establishment.

Second, Scholz could opt for a traffic-light coalition, comprising the SPD (red), the pro-business, libertarian Free Democratic Party (yellow) and the Greens. This, too, makes little ideological sense, as the two left-wing parties would not give the FDP nearly enough of what it believes in on economic matters. Neither outcome will lead to a governable Germany.

But beyond even the coming ideological incoherence, the real problem is the coalition math. I could not get three of my friends to agree on a favorite ice cream flavor, let alone important matters of state. The first three-party coalition in Germany in 60 years would make decisive leadership impossible in Europe’s most important state, dooming it to policy outputs that are either watered down or nonexistent.

Even more than before, Germany would become a policy-free zone, which in turn dooms Europe to yet more drift and incoherence, as Berlin simply could not lead, despite the imperative that it does so. Germany’s electoral math does nothing less than consign Europe to a medium-term of more drift and decline.

• John C. Hulsman is the president and managing partner of John C. Hulsman Enterprises, a prominent global political risk consulting firm. He is also a senior columnist for City AM, the newspaper of the City of London. He can be contacted via johnhulsman.substack.com.