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A limited number of rate cuts in Poland is a probable scenario for 2024, central banker Henryk Wnorowski told news agency ISBnews in comments published on Wednesday.
Poland's main interest rate has been at 5.75% since October and its Governor Adam Glapinski has said they will probably remain on hold until March and are unlikely to rise thereafter.
"In my opinion, rate cuts this year are probable, it will certainly not be a large number of reductions," Wnorowski said.
"We have already had three months of stable interest rates, and soon we will have positive real interest rates, so March and the March projection are crucial."
According to ISBnews Wnorowski said that inflation at the end of 2024 would not be above 5%.
The central bank expects inflation to fall to its target range of 2.5% plus or minus 1 percentage point at the end of the first quarter, but it is likely to rise thereafter as the government phases out policies that have kept food and energy costs down.
"Short-term forecasts are very good and indicate that by the end of the first quarter we will certainly be within the band of deviations from the target inflation, and there are many indications that it is even slightly below the target - i.e. 2.5%," Wnorowski said.
Wnorowski also said that there were no reasons for the central bank to sell bonds it bought in a quantitative easing programme during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Fellow Monetary Policy Council (MPC) member Ireneusz Dabrowski told Bloomberg in comments published on Friday that such a move could be on the cards if the government abandoned anti-inflation policies such as zero VAT on food.
(Reporting by Alan Charlish, Anna Wlodarczak-Semczuk; Editing by Alison Williams)