Tropical Depression Kabayan poised for landfall over Mindanao

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Tropical Depression Kabayan, the country's 11th cyclone this year, may make landfall over Mindanao Sunday evening or early Monday, according to the state weather agency.

Kabayan was last spotted 440 kilometers east of Davao City in Davao del Sur, with maximum peak winds of 55 km per hour near the center and gusts of up to 70 kph.

PAGASA said Kabayan is likely to maintain its strength until its initial landfall over Mindanao. But the weather bureau is not ruling out the possibility of the cyclone reaching tropical storm category before landfall.

Moving north northwest slowly, Kabayan is likely to make landfall along the coast of Surigao del Sur or Davao Oriental tonight or early Monday.

Strong winds, heavy rain

PAGASA placed the following areas in Visayas and Mindanao under Wind Signal No. 1:

Southern portion of Samar (Basey, Santa Rita, Marabut, Talalora, Villareal, Pinabacdao)

Southern portion of Eastern Samar (Maydolong, City of Borongan, Quinapondan, Guiuan, Lawaan, Balangiga, Llorente, Giporlos, Salcedo, Balangkayan, General Macarthur, Hernani, Mercedes)

Leyte

Southern Leyte

Bohol

Camotes Islands

Dinagat Islands

Surigao del Norte

Surigao del Sur

Agusan del Norte

Agusan del Sur

Northern portion of Davao Oriental (Cateel, Boston, Baganga)

Northern portion of Davao de Oro (Monkayo, Laak)

Misamis Oriental

Camiguin

Northern portion of Bukidnon (Impasug-Ong, Malitbog, Manolo Fortich, Sumilao, Libona, Baungon, Cabanglasan, City of Malaybalay)

The weather agency warned that "minimal to minor impacts from strong winds" are possible in any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.

The surge of northeast monsoon or amihan will also bring gusty conditions for the next two days to the following areas not under any wind signal, especially in coastal and upland areas:

Batanes

Babuyan Islands

Ilocos Norte

Ilocos Sur

Aurora

Bataan

Bulacan

Rizal

Quezon province

Lubang Island

Marinduque

Cuyo Islands

Bicol region

Visayas

Northern and eastern portion of mainland Cagayan

Eastern portions of Isabela and Nueva Ecija

Portions of Cordillera Administrative Region, Zambales, Pampanga, Cavite, Mindoro provinces

Parts of Visayas and Mindanao will also experience heavy rainfall due to Kabayan.

Sunday

100 to 200 mm: Surigao del Sur, Surigao del Norte, Dinagat Islands and Southern Leyte

50 to 100 mm: Eastern Visayas, Davao region, Northern Mindanao, rest of Caraga

Monday

100 to 200 mm: Surigao del Sur, Surigao del Norte, Dinagat Islands and Southern Leyte

50 to 100 mm: Eastern Visayas, Central Visayas, Northern Mindanao and rest of Caraga

Rainfall is expected to be higher in mountainous areas. This may result in flooding and landslides, particularly in areas highly susceptible to these hazards and those that have experienced significant rainfall in recent days.

The shear line-a weather system formed when cold and warm winds converge-may also bring heavy rainfall to the eastern portion of southern Luzon Sunday and eastern portion of Luzon Monday.

After making landfall in Mindanao, Kabayan is projected to cross the region's rugged terrain and emerge over Bohol Sea or Sulu Sea Monday morning or afternoon.

"Due to frictional effects associated with landfall, Kabayan is forecast to weaken over land and the possibility of being downgraded into a low pressure area while over land or after emerging over the sea is not ruled out (although in such a case, re-development may still occur over the Sulu Sea)," PAGASA said.

Kabayan will move across the Sulu Sea south of Cuyo Islands for the remainder of Monday and into early Tuesday.

The cyclone is forecast to make another landfall over central or southern Palawan as a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. It may pass near or over the Kalayaan Islands in the West Philippine Sea.

PAGASA noted the projected track and intensity of the tropical depression could change due to its nature and strength.

The Philippines has so far endured fewer storms in 2023 than in any of the past 25 years. So far this year, only 11 have made landfall or come close. The archipelago is usually affected by around 20 cyclones a year.

Forecast position

Dec. 17, 2023 8 p.m. - 160 km east southeast of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur

Dec. 18, 2023 8 a.m. - Over the Macajalar Bay

Dec. 18, 2023 8 p.m. - 220 km west of Dumaguete City, Negros Oriental

Dec. 19, 2023 8 a.m. - Over the coastal waters of Aborlan, Palawan

Dec. 19, 2023 8 p.m. - 205 km east southeast of Pagasa Island, Palawan

Dec. 20, 2023 8 a.m. - 125 km west southwest of Pagasa Island, Palawan (outside PAR)

Dec. 21, 2023 8 a.m. - 510 km west southwest of Pagasa Island, Palawan (outside PAR)