Whoever wins New Zealand’s election on Saturday is going to have to make some difficult decisions on investment and staffing for a defence force struggling with aging equipment and personnel shortages.

Three of New Zealand’s nine navy ships are idle because of staff shortages and any military response to a humanitarian emergency in the region over the coming cyclone season would be curtailed because of constraints, a spokesman for New Zealand Defence Force (NZDF) said in an email.

“The NZDF is able to provide a range of responses, but at reduced capacity,” the spokesman said.

The centre-right National Party led by Christopher Luxon is expected to emerge as the largest party in the Saturday vote with Prime Minister Chris Hipkin’s Labour Party coming second.

A mixed-member proportional (MMP) electoral system has made coalitions the norm since it was introduced in 1996.

Both Labour and the National Party have said they'd like to increase defence spending but have not promised to do so. A possible National coalition partner, the ACT party, has said it will increase spending to 1.5% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the short term. New Zealand now spends less than 1%.

Underspending on the military and the challenges it faces are well documented and it is becoming increasingly difficult to postpone costly decisions, defence analysts say.

As well as three of the navy’s ships being idle, plans to build a ship suitable for patrolling the harsh Southern Ocean have been suspended pending a decision on the country's two aging frigates, which are likely to need replacing.

A review of what the government needs to spend to make the force fit for purpose is due in 2024.

“A new government is going to have to make a series of significant choices about the future the New Zealand Defence Force and its ability to match New Zealand’s foreign policy in the Pacific with its material capability to do so,” said Anna Powles, senior lecturer in the Centre for Defence and Security Studies at Massey University.

For New Zealand, a stable and open Indo-Pacific region is vital to protect trade and telecommunication connections and China's growing presence in the South Pacific is a major concern for it and its allies.

The government has taken steps to address some of the problems the military faces and this year it announced a pay rise for military personnel.

The Labour Party has campaigned on a policy of introducing an authority to set pay rates. It has funded several new aircraft, vehicles and one ship during its six-year rule. (Reporting by Lucy Craymer; editing by Robert Birsel)