(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.)

LITTLETON, Colorado - Wind generation in Germany is set to grow by only 1% in 2024, the slowest growth pace in 3 years, as low wind speeds alongside a slowdown in net generation capacity construction blunt the progress of the country's top source of electricity.

Sluggish growth in the country's main power source may force utilities to increase generation from fossil fuels in late 2024, especially if industrial power use expands just as demand for household and commercial heating climbs over winter.

Higher fossil fuel-fired generation by Europe's largest economy may in turn reverse the trend of power sector pollution in the country, which so far in 2024 has declined to its lowest levels in more than a decade.

WIND'S PLATEAU

Wind farms overtook coal-fired power plants as the main source of German electricity production for the first time in 2023, and wind remains the primary power source for the country so far in 2024.

Wind power accounted for around 28% of Germany's utility-scale electricity generation through the first seven months of 2024, according to data from energy think tank Ember.

That share is up from around 27% for 2023 as a whole, and exceeded coal's 19.5% and solar's 17.5% shares so far this year.

Total electricity generation from wind farms dropped to its lowest level in over a year in July due to low wind speeds, which slump every summer due to relatively still conditions at turbine level during the hottest time of year.

Wind generation levels are expected to rebound from September onwards as weather conditions change and wind speeds pick up, which should allow wind farms to further expand their share of overall electricity generation later in 2024.

However, forecasts by LSEG suggest overall wind generation from September onwards may fall below prior-year totals, and result in a 12% decline in net generation during the final quarter from the same months in 2023.

CHANGING FORECASTS

LSEG's latest wind generation forecasts show that Germany's wind power will be 13,438 megawatt hours (MWh) in September, which would mark a 4,200 MWh or 46% gain over the generation total of September 2023.

However, LSEG's forecasts for generation over the remaining months of the year look set to consistently fall below the year-before totals, by an average of nearly 12% for the final quarter of the year.

If realized, those forecasts would equate to a full-year generation total of 196,189 MWh for 2024, which is up just 0.9% from 2023's full-year tally of 194,432 MWh.

The less than 1% expansion in wind generation compares to a 12.4% annual growth rate in 2023 and a 11.2% expansion in 2022, and so could be viewed as a disappointment by clean energy advocates.

And LSEG forecasts are bound to change as wind speeds and regional weather conditions evolve.

But significant changes to Germany's wind generation infrastructure so far in 2024 also point to only modest growth potential for the year as a whole.

CAPACITY EBBS & FLOWS

Over the first half of 2024, the German wind sector had almost 900 new turbines with a collective generation capacity of 5,021 megawatts (MW) approved for connection to the country's grid, according to government data.

That capacity figure was a record, and indicates federal authorities remain committed to maintaining clean power growth.

However, the number of operational turbines in Germany actually shrank over the opening half of 2024, as 252 new turbines were connected to the grid while 282 turbines were decommissioned.

The new turbines out-muscle their deactivated peers in terms of capacity, bringing 1,310 MW online to replace the 380 MW of shuttered capacity.

Yet the actual generation potential of this newly reconfigured fleet remains unclear and at the mercy of wind speeds across key farms.

Currently, LSEG's forecasts call for generation to slightly exceed long-term generation levels over the near term, but then drift consistently below average output rates later in the year due to slower-than-normal wind speeds.

EMISSIONS IMPACT

If those wind generation forecasts prove substantially accurate, then overall German wind output may post only modest year-on-year growth in 2024, despite the connection of newer and larger turbines.

To make up for any power supply shortfall that may emerge, German power producers may be forced to boost output from coal and gas-fired plants, which have played only bit parts in the generation mix so far but remain integral to Germany's overall energy system.

Through the first seven months of 2024, German fossil-fuel fired generation contracted by 14.5% from the same months in 2023 and was the lowest for that period on record, Ember data shows. German power sector emissions from fossil fuels dropped to a record low of 85.3 million metric tons of carbon dioxide as a result, from 105 million tons during the same period in 2023.

But those emissions levels could rise steeply if power firms are obliged to offset any power shortfalls from wind farms with higher coal and gas-fired output, which remain the primary go-to power sources whenever wind output stalls.

(Reporting by Gavin Maguire; Editing by Jamie Freed)