At the Munich Security Conference this week, world leaders gathered in polished rooms to discuss war, defence, and global stability. The usual topics filled the air, alliances, threats, military strategy. Then came a statement from the German government that should have shaken the entire room. Climate change, they said, is the greatest security challenge of our time.

The world is slow to connect these crises, but the pattern is unmistakable. War and climate collapse are not separate disasters. They feed each other, locked in a cycle of destruction. Climate stress fuels conflict, and conflict accelerates climate destruction. The war in Gaza has wrecked infrastructure, leaving people to fight for dwindling resources. The war in Ukraine has turned forests to ash and poisoned farmland. In Sudan, rising temperatures and prolonged droughts have made land disputes deadlier. In Syria, years of climate-induced drought helped create the economic desperation that preceded the 2011 uprising.

Conflicts do not begin with weapons. They begin with scarcity. A failed harvest, a disappearing water source, a coastline swallowed by the sea; these are the silent warnings before unrest. Studies have long warned that climate change acts as a threat multiplier, deepening instability in fragile regions with some showing that climate-induced droughts and food shortages significantly increase the risk of armed conflict. The United Nations predicts that by 2050, more than 1.2 billion people could be displaced due to climate-related crises. What happens when those people have nowhere to go? What happens when the next war is not fought over ideology, but over access to land that can still grow food?

In high-level defense discussions, climate instability is still treated as an unfortunate backdrop to geopolitical struggles, rather than a defining force in shaping them. But that narrative is beginning to crack. When I was invited to Nato headquarters to discuss the intersection of war and climate, I watched as security experts mapped out future conflicts. Most of the conversation focused on weapons and borders. But when I raised the question of climate, there was a shift. Some of them were beginning to see what environmental scientists have been warning for years. Climate change is not a distant crisis. It is already shaping battlefields, redrawing borders, and driving new patterns of migration and conflict.

Security must be redefined. National defence strategies must recognise that water and food scarcity are not just humanitarian concerns but existential security risks. Governments must acknowledge that the deliberate destruction of natural resources is an act of war, one that should be prosecuted like any other war crime. Future climate summits must account for war’s impact, ensuring that post-conflict rebuilding does not lock nations into further environmental collapse. The United Nations Security Council must formally recognise climate change as a security risk and integrate climate resilience into peacekeeping and post-war recovery efforts. The International Criminal Court must classify the deliberate destruction of water sources and agricultural land as a war crime. Future climate negotiations must include conflict zones, ensuring that rebuilding efforts are sustainable and not carbon-intensive.

This is not just about emissions targets or energy policy. This is about survival.

At the Munich Security Conference, leaders debated power struggles and military alliances, but the most urgent question remained unasked. What kind of world are we building?

One where climate disasters fuel endless war, or one where we finally see that peace and climate security are the same fight?

The battlefield is already changing. The only question is whether we will recognise it before it is too late.

The writer is an Omani environmental strategist and advocate for sustainable development, focusing on climate change impacts in the Middle East and women's empowerment in environmental solutions.

The writer is environmental strategist and advocate for sustainable development

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