Global trade posts growth in Q1 on big China, India momentum

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Global trade trends turned positive in the first quarter of 2024, with the value of trade in goods increasing by around 1% quarter-over-quarter and services by about 1.5%.

According to the latest Global Trade Update released by UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD), the growth was primarily driven by increased exports from China (9%), India (7%) and US (3%).

Conversely, Europe’s exports showed no growth and Africa’s decreased by 5%.

The report expects the increase to add approximately $250 billion to trade in goods, and $100 billion to services trade, in the first half of 2024 compared to the second half of 2023.

The short-term trade outlook is cautiously optimistic as the global forecasts for GDP growth remain at around 3% for 2024.

The report says that if positive trends persist, global trade in 2024 could reach almost $32 trillion, but unlikely to surpass the record level seen in 2022.

Trade in developing countries and South-South trade increased by about 2% in both imports and exports during the first quarter of 2024. In comparison, developed countries saw flat imports and a modest 1% rise in exports.

South-South trade rose by 2% in the first quarter of 2024. However, its value is still significantly below the levels of 2022, as its four-quarter moving average remains negative at -5%.

The report highlights that trade growth varied significantly across sectors, with green energy and artificial intelligence-related products experiencing stronger increases.

The trade value of high-performance servers rose by 25% compared to the first quarter of 2023, while other computers and storage units saw an 8% increase.