Trade between China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) will grow to $616 billion in the coming decade, according to a new analysis by Boston Consulting Group (BCG).

“As the world’s leading exporter of manufactured goods, China itself is resilient. Trade that stops flowing between China and the West will simply move elsewhere,” the consultancy added.

Persistent trade tensions and growing trade barriers are continuing to impact trade between China and the West.

The projected fall-off in US-China trade is one of the most significant developments in the updated global trade map, with 2032 trade value forecast to fall $197 billion from its 2022 level.

This is more than three times the $63 billion contraction forecast one year ago in a similar BCG analysis. The change is due to China’s slowing GDP growth in 2022 and other factors.

However, China’s trade with the European Union (EU )will continue to grow, but more slowly than the global average.

Southeast Asia and India stand to benefit from slowing trade between China and the West. ASEAN global trade will grow by $1.2 trillion and India’s will expand by over $390 billion, the report said.

(Writing by P Deol; Editing by Anoop Menon)

(anoop.menon@lseg.com)

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