NAPERVILLE, Illinois - After their worst campaign in 52 years, U.S. wheat exports are expected to reach four-year highs in the current marketing year thanks to a strong crop and relatively tame prices.

Robust shipments have recently supported that forecast.

That should boost the United States’ relevance in the global wheat market, though the storyline could be foiled by top exporter Russia, which has been pumping out record volumes.

As of Sept. 19, nearly 7.7 million metric tons of U.S. wheat had been inspected for export in the 2024-25 marketing year that started on June 1. That is 39% higher than on the same date a year ago.

August and September are typically the busiest months for U.S. wheat exports, and last week’s inspections were the strongest in two years. Recent shipments have been well distributed across top U.S. wheat customers including Mexico, South Korea and the Philippines.

So far, total 2024-25 wheat inspections account for 34% of the full-year export forecast from the U.S. Department of Agriculture. That coverage rate is a seven-year high.

Relative to demand, wheat supplies among major exporting countries are set for 17-year lows in 2024-25. This combined with relatively low prices throughout most of this year has helped generate business for U.S. exporters.

USDA’s latest estimates suggest the United States will account for 10.4% of global wheat exports in 2024-25, the most in three years and up from 2023-24’s all-time low of 8.7%.

Two decades ago, U.S. wheat accounted for about a quarter of all global wheat exports, but the country is still set to be the fourth-largest exporter in 2024-25 despite a lower market share versus years past.

RUSSIA IS KING

Unfortunately, the United States’ recent export success offers no guarantees. Over the last decade, there were seven instances where final U.S. wheat exports were lower than what USDA had predicted in September. That includes years with strong early shipments.

An expanding Russian crop and export program may be to blame.

In every September over the last decade, USDA had been understating Russian wheat output as compared with final figures. The 2023-24 crop, harvested more than a year ago, is now 6.5 million tons (8%) larger than what USDA was estimating last September.

The agency has the 2024-25 Russian crop pegged at a three-year low of 83 million tons, down 9% on the year, but export potential should not be discounted. Russia’s domestic wheat consumption is steady to declining, and the country is now exporting a much larger portion of its harvests than ever before.

Russian wheat export prices have recently held steady below most global values, but they are expected to increase in the coming months as readily exportable supplies wane.

Russian farmers are currently sowing the 2025-26 winter wheat crop, and as of last week, progress was slightly behind a year ago. Extremely dry conditions in some of the top winter wheat regions threaten to reduce total area and/or disrupt early crop emergence.

Forecasts do not show relief coming for at least two weeks. However, Russian weather woes would have to persist for much longer to meaningfully boost opportunities for peripheral wheat suppliers like the United States over the next year. Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. Views expressed above are her own.

(Writing by Karen Braun Editing by Matthew Lewis)