(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a market analyst for Reuters.)

NAPERVILLE, Illinois - Speculators have approached all-time bearish bets in Chicago-traded soybean meal with global output seen surging to new highs over the next year.

In the week ended Nov. 26, money managers expanded their net short in CBOT soymeal futures and options to 75,416 contracts from 63,700 a week earlier. That came despite fractional gains in meal futures.

The new meal net short is less than 2,000 contracts away from February 2020’s record, and it is a complete flip from a year ago when funds’ bullishness was at a near-record high.

Expanding U.S. soybean processing capacity has kept domestic meal supplies ample. The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Monday confirmed that October soybean crush reached an all-time monthly high.

Record crop expectations in Brazil and a favorable start for top meal exporter Argentina have also weighed on soybean and soybean meal prices in recent sessions. January CBOT meal futures narrowly avoided new lows on Monday, but posted a contract-low close of $287.90 per short ton.

Through Nov. 26, money managers expanded their net short in CBOT soybean futures and options to a 10-week high of 81,472 contracts versus 67,701 in the prior week. That is similar to their views on the same date in 2019, when U.S. soybean supply expectations were nearly identical to current ones.

Despite weakness on Monday, CBOT soybean futures drifted slightly higher over the last three sessions, though CBOT soybean oil plunged 3%.

That followed 5% losses for soyoil in the week ended Nov. 26, during which money managers slashed their net long almost by half to 23,193 futures and options contracts from 56,060 a week earlier. Funds adopted bullish soyoil bets just two months ago after having been on the short side for nearly a year.

Global vegoil prices eased in recent weeks after rallying sharply earlier last month. However, benchmark Malaysian palm oil futures have risen almost 5% since bottoming nearly two weeks ago, but rival CBOT soyoil has declined 2% since then.

Money managers were still bullish toward CBOT corn futures and options as of Nov. 26, though they cut their net long to 97,442 contracts from 114,628 in the prior week, which had marked a 21-month high.

U.S. corn demand remains strong as exporters are selling and shipping above-average weekly volumes, and corn-based ethanol production last week hit another all-time high.

March CBOT corn gained 1% over the past three sessions, though CBOT wheat slipped nearly 2% on cheap, plentiful Russian supplies.

Money managers through Nov. 26 had lifted their CBOT wheat net short to a 15-week high of 59,118 futures and options contracts. They have not been bullish toward wheat since June 2022.

Traders this week will continue to monitor South American weather outlooks, which are favorable for now. Strong U.S. export demand and relations with key trade partners will also be in focus ahead of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s January inauguration. Karen Braun is a market analyst with Reuters. Views expressed above are her own.

(Editing by Leslie Adler)