NAPERVILLE, Illinois - U.S. Crop Watch corn and soybean yields are still expected to land slightly above average levels, but the season’s dry finish has begun showing up in early harvest results.

The soybeans in western Iowa and western Illinois, as well as the corn in Indiana, were harvested last week, and yields were a bit less than the producers had hoped. That marks four of the 22 Crop Watch fields as complete.

Last week’s rains were not as heavy as some models predicted, as five Crop Watch locations received less than an inch of rain and another five were dry. Kansas was the biggest beneficiary with 3 inches (76 millimeters) of rain last week, which will help winter wheat planting efforts set to begin this week.

Temperatures last week were unseasonably warm across the whole Corn Belt, and this was once again welcomed in the Dakotas and Minnesota. Producers there had been worried all season about lagging corn development, but this month’s weather has greatly eased those fears.

YIELD CONTRACTION

Crop Watch producers continue to rate yield potential on a 1-to-5 scale. Yield potential incorporates both visible and non-visible elements where 3 is around farm average yield, 4 is solidly above average and 5 is record or close to it.

The 11-field, average corn yield fell to 3.27, matching a season low, from 3.32 a week earlier. Quarter-point trims were observed in western Iowa, southeastern Illinois and Indiana, and those offset a quarter-point rise in Nebraska after that producer harvested some of the field.

The Indiana corn was completed on Friday with a final score of 4.75. A 5 had been expected all season, but the bone-dry August and some disease kept the yield just below last year’s result and short of the 2018 record.

The recent hot and dry weather has caused corn to lose moisture rapidly in western Iowa and southeastern Illinois, hence the yield reductions there.

Average soybean yield tumbled to a season low of 3.32 from 3.45 a week earlier, its biggest weekly decline of the year. That was led by a three-quarter-point drop following harvest in the western Iowa field, which ended at 3.25. Four weeks ago, the producer had been confident in his record yield projection.

Late-season dryness also reduced yield expectations this week by a half-point in eastern Iowa and a quarter-point in southeastern Illinois. The western Illinois soybeans were harvested last week, and yield ended at the predicted 4.5.

LOOKING AHEAD

The U.S. Corn Belt this week is set for more unseasonably warm temperatures, allowing for an efficient harvest pace wherever the crops are ready. Some soy fields could be ready for harvest this week, and beans in the north could start going next week.

The Western Corn Belt is predicted to be mostly dry this week, though a tropical system, named Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine as of early Monday, could bring moisture to the east by the weekend.

This could result in rain totals exceeding a couple inches in parts of Illinois and Indiana. Crop Watch producers there say that the rains could benefit a very small portion of the crops, but they may be more disruptive than helpful if they are heavy and span multiple days. Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. Views expressed above are her own.

(Writing by Karen Braun Editing by Matthew Lewis)