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Chinese authorities will defend the yuan from weakening past the psychological 7 per dollar rate, very close to where it is trading now, according to a Reuters poll of FX strategists who said the currency will cut its losses in the coming year.
Still, 28 of 60 strategists polled from Oct 26 to 31 forecast the partially-managed yuan to weaken to 7 to the dollar or further at some point within a year, the highest count in Reuters polls since July last year and seven more than in the October poll.
Having weakened more than 7 percent so far this year, the yuan hit its weakest since the global financial crisis on Wednesday, at 6.9748 per dollar. It’s been hammered by the trade war with the United States and bets for further monetary easing by the People’s Bank of China to bolster the stumbling economy.
But 20 of 37 currency strategists who answered an additional question in the latest Reuters poll said the Chinese authorities would stop the yuan from weakening to 7 per dollar or beyond.
The remaining 17 respondents said authorities would not intervene to defend that exchange rate.
“Even if we see clear signals that the Chinese central bank is against a depreciation of the renminbi, the depreciation pressure is not easing,” wrote Zhou Hao, senior emerging market economist at Commerzbank in Singapore, in a client note.
“Nevertheless, we continue to believe that the PBoC will not abandon the psychologically significant 7 mark easily. This could trigger a capital flight that would make it all the more difficult for Chinese leaders to maintain financial stability,” he added.