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Indian government bond yields ended higher for the first time in three sessions on Wednesday as traders eye further positive triggers, while oil prices and U.S. yields, though off their recent highs, continue to threaten fresh peaks.
The benchmark 10-year yield ended at 7.1852%, following its previous close at 7.1643%. The benchmark yield eased seven basis points (bps) in the last two sessions.
"As there are no new positive triggers for a clear direction of yields, it seems to be upwards for the near term. Geo-political risk and elevated oil prices continue to remain a negative trigger," said Gopal Tripathi, head of treasury and capital markets at Jana Small Finance Bank.
The benchmark Brent crude contract was around $88 per barrel, after topping $92 earlier this month. Though the Middle East conflict has not yet impacted supply, traders remain on edge.
Crude prices affect domestic retail inflation as India is one of the largest oil importers. Prolonged high prices could make the Reserve Bank of India's 4% inflation target more difficult to achieve.
Extreme weather events and prolonged geopolitical tensions could also pose a risk to India's inflation trajectory, even though economic growth exhibits an uptrend, the RBI said on Tuesday.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield continues to remain above the 4.60% mark, as investors pare back U.S. rate cut bets for 2024.
Investors are expecting around 42 bps of U.S. rate cuts by the end of this year, compared to the more-than-150 bps expected at the start of 2024, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Back home, traders also await fresh debt supply which could provide insights into investor demand, as New Delhi will raise 320 billion rupees ($3.84 billion) through the sale of bonds on Friday.
This includes 200 billion rupees of the new 10-year 7.10% 2034 paper, which will replace the existing benchmark bond soon. ($1 = 83.2863 Indian rupees)
(Reporting by Dharamraj Dhutia; Editing by Savio D'Souza)