CANBERRA: Chicago wheat futures rose on Friday helped by a weaker dollar but the market was still set for a weekly fall, as traders weighed whether crop losses in top exporter Russia were big enough to hold prices at 10-month highs.

Corn and soybean futures also rose slightly, with both set to end the week lower after data showed that U.S. farmers were making speedy progress in planting their crops.

 

FUNDAMENTALS

* The most-active wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) was up 0.8% at $6.84-1/4 a bushel by 0059 GMT but down 1.5% for the week.

* CBOT soybeans were up 0.3% at $12.13-1/4 a bushel but down 2.6% this week and corn was 0.6% higher at $4.51-1/2 a bushel but down 2.9% from last Friday's close.

* Wheat surged to $7.20 on Tuesday, its highest since July last year and up 37% from a mid-March low.

* Russian analysts have cut their harvest estimates by around 12 million metric tons due to dryness and spring frosts, with dry conditions also threatening crops in Ukraine, where the harvest is about to begin.

* Also, expectations that India could restart wheat imports are further tightening global supply.

* Weather charts have been projecting rainfall for some areas of Russia and Ukraine, prompting some investors to take profits and bringing prices down.

* But analysts are unsure how much the rain will improve the crop outlook. StoneX analyst Arlan Suderman said his firm's lead forecaster expects no overall help for the bulk of Ukraine and southern Russian winter crops.

* The Russian shortfall and India's potential imports put a dent as large as 17 million tons in available global wheat supplies versus initial ideas, equivalent to about 8% of the U.S. Department of Agriculture' s 2024-25 world wheat export forecast, writes Reuters columnist Karen Braun.

* Elsewhere, European Union trade ministers agreed to impose prohibitive tariffs on cereals, oilseeds and derived products from Russia and Belarus from July 1.

* The European Commission kept unchanged its monthly forecast of the European Union's main wheat crop in 2024/25 at a four-year low, but raised its stocks outlook on bigger than expected supplies left over from this season.

* Most of Australia's main cropping regions are likely to endure a dry June but should grow significantly wetter from July, the country's weather bureau said, boosting the outlook for crops.

* Planting for Argentina's 2024/25 wheat cycle began in recent days, two weeks behind schedule due to delays in the harvesting of the previous season's soybean and corn crops, the Buenos Aires grains exchange said.

* Monsoon rains hit the coast of India's southernmost state of Kerala on Thursday, two days sooner than expected.

* Commodity funds were net sellers of CBOT wheat, corn and soybean futures contracts on Thursday, traders said.

 

MARKETS NEWS

* MSCI's global equities gauge fell on Thursday and bond yields dropped with the U.S. dollar as investors analysed weaker than expected U.S. growth data and Federal Reserve comments for clues on the outlook for interest rates and the economy.

(Reporting by Peter Hobson; Editing by Rashmi Aich)