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Oil prices will maintain their current range in the low eighties in the coming months as broader macro data points and geopolitical risks push against each other.
According to research by Emirates NBD, inflation and interest rates as well as geopolitical risks in the Middle East will keep prices in the low $80-per-barrel range, with occasional swings to either side.
A note issued by Edward Bell, Head of Market Economics, said OPEC+ countries are due to add barrels again in oil markets from Q4 2024, with demand forecast to accelerate in the same quarter based on IEA and OPEC forecasts, giving OPEC+ countries room to increase production.
But the improvement contrasts with broader macro trends of cooling inflation, slowing jobs growth, and interest rate cuts, which suggest that economic growth is adjusting to a lower pace and that oil demand will, in turn, trend lower as well, Bell said.
(Reporting by Imogen Lillywhite; editing by Seban Scaria)