Tunisia - The outcomes of the war in Ukraine have shaken a timid post-health crisis recovery. The growth rate for 2023 stood at 0.9% compared to 1.8% initially forecast in a report of the Finance Ministry, underlines the " the Review of the Stock Market Activity in 2023," released Friday , by the Tunis Stock Exchange.

The document highlights the «economic regression of 8.7% in 2020, and a resumption of growth in 2021 and 2022, respectively of 4.5% and 2.8%».

This growth hinges on several factors, namely "the low rainfall for a fairly long period, which impacted agricultural productivity and resulted in an unprecedented recourse to the importation of agricultural products, then the persistence of the stagnation in the rate of extractive production, which deprived the State of additional foreign currency income, and finally the reduction in demand emanating from the Euro Zone, mainly affecting manufacturing industries.

In 2023, "the Tunisian economy should benefit from the good performance of the two sectors which were able to stand out: tourism and the mechanical and electrical industries". " but despite a good tourist season marked by significant flows of Tunisian expatriates visiting the country," the situation is more complex in Tunisia compared to other countries in the world, "with the addition of other factors which have negative consequences namely the acute drought and its impact on agricultural production, inflationary pressures, the State budgetary imbalance and the tightening of foreign financing.

This challenging situation has delayed the resumption of the productive chain of our economy, the National Institute of Statistics (INS) said, adding that economic growth recorded a decline of 0.2% during the 3rd quarter of 2023 compared to the same period of 2022 (annual shift) compared to growth of 1.8% and 0.6% during the 1st and 2nd quarters of 2023.

"It is important to note that inflationary pressures are showing an upward trend which has not been witnessed since the 1990s. This trend is fueled mainly by the rise in international prices of oil and agricultural products imported by Tunisia. Over the past nine first months of 2023, Tunisia's average inflation reached 9.7% compared to 7.8% during the same period of 2022. This increase is caused by the increase in rate of change in the prices of food products and those of services.

Regarding Tunisia's trade with the foreign countries, exports increased by 7.6% during the first eleven months of 2023, compared to an increase of 24% during the same period of 2022. While imports recorded a decrease of 3.7% compared to an increase of +33% during the same period in 2022. This led to a trade deficit which was reduced to a level of -16,543 MD against -23,296.5 MD during the same period of 2022. The coverage rate gained 8.1 points per compared to the same period of the year 2022 to stand at 77.2%.

Regarding public debts, the report of the Finance Ministry of Finance revealed that the Tunisian external debts represent 57.7% of the overall debts (including 55.6% in Euro) which reached 119.193 billion dinars late in August 2023.

According to the same report, the forecast level of the overall State debt would reach an amount of 139.976 billion dinars, which represents 79.8% of GDP in 2024, against a rate of 80.2% forecast in 2023.

"As a result of this situation, the pressure on public finance continues on an upward trend, as such the foreign currency charges of the external debt in 2024 will amount to 12,314 MD, with additional foreign debts expected for 16,445 MD during 2024," the same document shows.

As for the Tunisian Dinar, during the first nine months of 2023, the exchange rate recorded a depreciation of 3.2%, on average against the Euro, and 1.1% against of the US dollar.

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