Morgan Stanley revises Egypt's GDP forecast for FY2024/25 to 4.8%

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Arab Finance: Morgan Stanley has revised Egypt's gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for the fiscal year (FY) 2024/2025 upward to 4.8%, up from a previous estimate of 4.3%, as per a research note.

The revision comes after a detailed analysis indicating that real GDP growth likely hit a low point in the first quarter (Q1) of 2024, registering 0.2% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) seasonally adjusted and 2.2% year-on-year (YoY).

The rebound in the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) observed in May and June signals a robust recovery in the second quarter (Q2) of 2024, which analysts anticipate will continue into the third quarter (Q3).

Despite forecasting a quarterly growth rate of 2.3% seasonally adjusted in Q2 2024, Morgan Stanley now projects full-year real GDP growth for FY 2023/2024 at 2.9% YoY, down from the previous forecast of 3.1% YoY.

Looking ahead to FY 2024/2025, Morgan Stanley anticipates strong quarterly momentum in Q3 2024 driven by easing supply constraints.

This outlook underpins their decision to revise their FY 2024/2025 growth forecast upward by 0.5% to 4.8% YoY.

The adjusted forecast takes into account various economic indicators and trends, positioning Morgan Stanley's projections amidst evolving market conditions and policy dynamics.