The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its projections for Egypt’s real GDP growth in 2023 and 2024, according to the World Economic Outlook report released in October 2023.

The IMF expects Egypt’s economy to grow by 4.2% in 2023, down from 6.7% in 2022. The growth rate is further lowered to 3.6% in 2024.

The report also predicts that Egypt’s inflation will rise to 23.5% in 2023 and 32.2% in 2024, compared to 8.5% in 2022.

The unemployment rate is estimated to decrease slightly to 7.1% in 2023 from 7.3% in 2022 but increase again to 7.5% in 2024.

The current account balance is projected to improve from -3.5% of GDP in FY2021/22 to -1.7% of GDP in FY 2022/23, but worsen to -2.4% of GDP in FY 2023/24.

The report attributes the downward revisions to the impact of the property sector crisis in China, which has affected emerging markets and developing economies.

The report also notes that global growth will slow down from 3.5% in 2022 to 3% in 2023 and 2.9% in 2024, with headline inflation declining from 9.2% in 2022 to 5.9% in 2023 and 4.8% in 2024.

The report warns that a full recovery from the pandemic is increasingly out of reach, especially for low-income countries, and that global growth prospects for the medium term are at their lowest in decades.

Regarding the Gaza conflict, the IMF’s Economic Counsellor and Director of Research Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said that the situation is unpredictable and its impact on the global economy is unclear at this time.

He added that oil prices have risen by about 4% since Saturday due to the fighting in Gaza and that the continuation of the war could push oil prices to record levels.

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