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Morocco's central bank left its benchmark interest rate at 1.5% on Wednesday, saying monetary policy was largely accommodative, amid the recovery of the economy from the repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Inflation was expected to stand at 1.2% this year and 1.6% next year, from 0.7% in 2020, despite the impact of imported inflationary pressure, the bank said in a statement after its quarterly meeting.
The bank revised upwards this year's growth forecast to 6.2% instead of an initial expectation of 5.8%, citing a rebound in agricultural output and progress in the rollout of the country's COVID-19 vaccination campaign.
Morocco has administered most doses in Africa, inoculating more than 50% of its population and has launched a third dose programme.
Assuming an average cereals harvest, Morocco's economy would grow 3% next year, the bank said.
Key to Morocco's inflow of hard currency, travel receipts are expected to jump to 60.7 billion dirhams ($6.7 bln), from 33.3 billion dirhams this year. That compares with 78.7 billion dirhams in 2019.
Remittances from Moroccans abroad are seen increasing to 87 billion dirhams in 2021 and 82.7 billion dirhams in 2022. Imports, however, continue to outweigh exports despite a rise in phosphates and automotive sector sales.
The current account deficit would widen to 2.5% of GDP this year, from 1.5% last year, the bank said. Morocco's foreign exchange reserves would stand at 345.1 billion dirhams ($38 bln) covering 7 months of imports, the bank said, citing external financing to the treasury and the allocation of 10.8 billion under the IMF's special drawing rights. The fiscal deficit would narrow from 7.6% in 2020, to 7.3% in 2021 and 6.8% in 2022, the bank said.
(Reporting by Ahmed Eljechtimi; Editing by Alison Williams and Alex Richardson) ((ahmed.eljechtimi@thomsonreuters.com;))