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Saudi Arabia's preliminary budget statement for 2023 released last week shows its projected oil revenues are based on a conservative price for Brent oil, analysts said.
According to Al Rajhi Capital, oil revenues for the kingdom in 2023 could reach SAR 754 billion “Based on our assessment, the government’s 2023 budgeted revenues are likely based on an assumption of Brent at around $76 a barrel,” said Mazen Al Sudairi, head of research at the brokerage.
According to Emirates NBD, the Saudi finance ministry "has likely based projected revenues on a conservative oil price assumption of around $80/barrel, which is much lower than our forecast of an average of $105/barrel in 2023."
On Monday, Brent crude futures rebounded $2.51, or 3%, to $87.65 a barrel from Friday, as OPEC+ is reported to be considering an output cut by more than 1 million barrels a day in a bid to support the market.
The median price forecast for Brent in 2023 is $94, according to a Reuters poll.
Meanwhile, the Saudi government preliminary budget estimates expects total revenues to reach SAR 1.12 trillion, 17% higher than the previously announced of SAR 968 billion.
Expenditure in 2023 is estimated at SAR 1.11 trillion, 18% higher than the earlier announcement. The Saudi government now expects a budget surplus of SAR 9 billion for 2023, lower than the SAR 27 billion estimated earlier. Emirates NBD had forecast SAR 330 billion surplus.
The government has forecast GDP growth of 3.1% in 2023; which is "slightly lower than our 3.5% forecast," the lender said.
(Reporting by Brinda Darasha; editing by Seban Scaria)
