MUSCAT - The forecasts of the Statistical Centre for the Cooperation Council for the Arab Countries of the Gulf (GCC-Stat) indicate that the gross domestic product (GDP) of the GCC countries constant prices will grow by 3.7 percent in the current year 2024.

The Centre expects growth to continue at a higher pace in 2025 to reach 4.5 percent, then it will stabilise at a rate of 3.5 percent in 2026.

The GCC-Stat forecasts that this expected growth for the years 2024, 2025 and 2026 is attributed to the increase in oil production in the GCC countries, especially in light of the fact that the OPEC+ alliance is gradually liberalising production quotas since the second half of this year 2024.

The growth will continue in particular with the development of new gas fields in the region, in addition to the accelerated pace of economic recovery in sectors related to transportation, tourism and infrastructure projects supported by expansionary policies at the level of public finance.

The initial forecasts issued by the GCC-Stat also indicated an improved growth in the non-oil sector in the GCC Countries to register a growth rate of 4.5 percent during the current year 2024, while maintaining this growth rate with an increase of 3.3 and 4.1 percent in 2025 and 2026 respectively.

This growth will be driven by an accelerated increase in private sector activities, especially in the tourism, transportation, storage and retail sectors. In addition, infrastructure projects in the GCC countries will contribute to enhancing growth in related sectors and stimulating growth in the private sector.

The forecasts also emphasise that the GCC countries’ continued implementation of economic diversification strategies during the years 2024 - 2026 will lead to significant growth in key sectors, most notably renewable energy, technology, innovation, and manufacturing industries.

The GCC-Stat demonstrated that the GDP at constant prices of the GCC countries during the year 2023 amounted to US$1,691.8 billion to log a growth of 0.5 percent compared to the year 2022, as the added value of the non-oil sector witnessed a growth of 3.3 percent in 2023.

The average per capita GDP at current prices in the GCC countries witnessed a decline of 5 percent in 2023 to reach US$36.7 thousand compared to US$38.6 thousand registered in 2022.

The GCC countries’ GDP at current prices contributed to 2 percent of the global GDP, which amounted to US$105.4 trillion in 2023. It accounted for 60.5 percent of the total Arab GDP, which amounted to US$3.5 trillion.

On the other hand, the GCC-Stat’s forecasts that inflation rates in the GCC countries will stabilise at 2.4, 2.6, and 2.1 percent during the period of 2024 – 2026. The risks that may increase inflationary pressures are represented by consumer prices, the rise in prices of raw materials imported from outside the GCC countries, the increase in consumption rates and public spending in all GCC countries due to the increase in employment rates, the rise in wages and the improvement in household income.

Additionally, the monetary policies in the United States, the European Union, the United Kingdom and Japan in keeping interest rates to curb inflationary pressures will contribute to the stabilization of inflation rates in the GCC countries.

The data issued by the Centre show that consumer price inflation rate in the GCC countries in 2023 reached about 2.2 percent, down from the rate logged in 2022, which amounted to 3.1 percent. This happened due to the improvement in supply chains, the decline in crude oil prices, the decrease in global food prices, and the rise of the US dollar against major currencies, with GCC currencies being pegged to the US dollar.