South Africa: Growers optimistic about 2024/2025 stone fruit exports

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The outlook for the 2024/2025 stone fruit export season is promising, with growers expressing optimism about increased crop volumes compared to the previous year. This positive forecast follows a difficult 2023/2024 season marked by extreme weather events—such as storms, fog, and strong winds in the Port of Cape Town—and ongoing logistical challenges at the port.

Weather impact and recovery

This past winter brought much-needed rainfall, filling irrigation dams. However, a long, cold, wet spring impacted flowering and fruit sets in certain areas. In early October specific parts of the Western Cape were hit by sleet, hail and frost, with early nectarine and peach varieties most affected.

The Berg River region also experienced a brief heatwave during the flowering of some plum varieties.

Despite these weather challenges, the increased hectares coming into production are expected to contribute to year-on-year volume growth. There were no major weather events in the Klein Karoo, the main apricot production region, resulting in a slight increase in apricot volumes compared to last year.

Hectare trends and varietal developments

Total nectarine hectares continue to expand, with a +2% year-on-year increase, especially in higher-yielding varieties. Peach hectares are on a downward trend, with both cling and dessert peaches decreasing by 8% and 10% year-on-year.

Total hectares for plums have stabilised and hectares planted (over the past five to six years) are now coming into production contributing to an increase in exports, estimated to be above the two-year average.

Logistical considerations

Although we believe that we have reached the turning point of the logistical crisis, specifically in the Port of Cape Town, we foresee another challenging season from a logistical point of view.

Growers, exporters and logistical service providers will have to make use of alternative modes of shipping to alleviate the pressure at the CT Container Terminal. Although more costly, this will ensure timeous shipping and quality fruit upon arrival, thereby fulfilling the servicing of clients and programmes.

Transnet has started implementing the strategic replacement and refurbishment of equipment and machinery at the Port of Cape Town, contracting maintenance and related services, and the appointment of additional staff. Some productivity improvements are therefore anticipated but we need to prepare for challenges such as downtime on equipment and wind delays.

The alternative modes and nodes of shipping include the use of Specialised Reefer Vessels (SRVs) and other ports (Eastern Cape and Durban) to ensure on-time arrivals with high-quality fruit, albeit at a higher cost.

As collective fruit industries, we continue to work closely with the management of the Port of Cape Town and will do everything within our reach to ensure a smooth logistical operation. The weekly engagement between Transnet management and the industry including logistics service providers and shipping companies will continue.

Initial stone fruit export estimates:

• Apricots: Projected to increase by 9%, with an estimated crop of 523,000 cartons (4.75 kg equivalent).
• Peaches: Expected to decline slightly by 1%, with a crop of 1.85 million cartons (2.5 kg).
• Nectarines: Although the total forecast is to rise by 4%, reaching 9.12 million cartons (2.5 kg), driven by high-yielding varieties coming into production, early nectarines have been affected negatively by the weather. Early varieties are set to be down 8% compared to the previous season.
• Plums: Projected to grow by 12%, with exports reaching 13.7 million cartons (5.25 kg), a recovery in export volumes due to more favourable weather conditions comparable to the previous two seasons.

Stone fruit export crop estimation (Nina Viljoen)

Market expectations

South African stone fruit will continue to meet the market’s expectations for high-quality and great-tasting produce. While consumers worldwide face economic pressures due to high inflation and limited spending power, the demand for fresh fruit remains steady.

In conclusion, South African growers are positive about the 2024/2025 harvest and export season. Fair and just returns are what is expected as growers have been under severe price pressure coupled with adverse weather events, over the past few years. Continuous delivery of top-quality, great-tasting fruit remains the aim which will lead to repeat sales.