LONDON - A stress test of five of Africa's banking systems has found some lenders in the region could face collapse if nature loss slashes the profits of agriculture and forestry firms they have lent to.

The analysis in Zambia, Ghana, Rwanda, Morocco and Mauritius showed that firms in certain sectors could see profits as much as halve over the next two decades if impacts like deforestation and the loss of pollinators like bees continue to be ignored.

"Africa is reliant on nature...if we don't coordinate in terms of how we are handling the risks that are coming from nature, from climate change, we could start seeing some systemic risks and contagion effects on the financial sector in Africa," said Oswald Mungule, a senior analyst at Bank of Zambia who was involved in the study.

The warning comes ahead of the U.N.'s COP16 biodiversity conference in Colombia in October where world leaders are under growing pressure to prevent further destruction of key ecosystems.

Expanding on an initial analysis done in 2022, the new stress test - shared exclusively with Reuters - is the first since a global deal struck at COP15 in Toronto that year to look at how economically destabilising biodiversity loss could be.

The World Economic Forum estimates that nearly two-thirds of Africa's economic output is either highly or moderately dependent on the natural environment.

The stress tests, coordinated by the African Natural Capital Alliance (ANCA) alongside British development agency FSD Africa and consulting firm McKinsey, showed the agriculture, mining and food sectors faced the most acute challenges.

If little is done over the next 25 years, Ghana's agriculture firms and Zambia's mining firms are expected to suffer a 50% and 32% drop respectively in their profits, creating negative feedback loops for banks.

"The cumulative expected credit losses (across the five countries) could increase by up to 21% by 2050 if no nature positive actions are taken," Dorothy Maseke head of ANCA and FSD Africa Nature Lead said. "It paints a very dire picture."

PROBLEMS AHEAD

Zambian central bank official Mungule explained that another big issue was the risk of food shortages, which history shows drive up both inflation and interest rates.

A severe drought in Zambia over the past year has led to a surge in food prices, which represent over 50% of the country's CPI basket.

Coming on top of a national debt crisis only now being resolved, it means almost 14% of the loans that Zambia's commercial banks have lent to agriculture and forestry firms are now "non-performing", a number that is likely to rise.

Agriculture traditionally contributes less than 4% of Zambia's GDP according to IMF data, but the mining sector, which the study warned could suffer a more than 30% drop in profits over the next couple of decades, has a much bigger 17.5% share.

To try and limit these problems, Zambia's central bank is pushing for fewer loans to be given to mining firms and more to those with greener, more nature-friendly activities.

The central bank wants to also conduct regular climate-stress tests on the banking system and is applying to join the Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System (NGFS), Mungule added.

Maseke said ANCA now has 'memorandums of understanding' with four African countries, including Zambia, to help with policymaking, and aims to be supporting eight in total by the end of the year.

Stress test results for individual banks were not disclosed but they assessed three main scenarios: one assuming no additional action to address nature and climate risks; a second where governments toughen rules but companies are slow to act; and a third where they take coordinated action together.

If companies are able to reduce their impact on nature and adjust prices in response to the costs they face, the hit to profits could be between 78% and 27% lower, the study showed.

(Additional reporting by Marc Jones Editing by Christina Fincher)