The 4th edition of the Standard Bank Africa Trade Barometer (SB ATB) once again provides pithy but invaluable insights into the health – or otherwise – of trade in Africa. It monitors a range of key indicators, and then ranks overall trade attractiveness, sometimes throwing up surprising conclusions for investors to ponder over.

Released in mid-October, this issue of the survey report shows Tanzania making a substantial leap from 8th position in terms of overall attractiveness for trade to 4th.

The East African country’s improved ranking, the report explains, was boosted by its substantial investments in infrastructure and better access to finance, enabling businesses to engage more actively in cross-border trade.

On the downside, “Ghana experienced a sharp decline, moving from the 3rd position to the 7th spot, underscoring the pressures that economy continues to endure. Its sharp decline also raises concerns about its ability to maintain trade competitiveness, even as Ghana is one of the most stable and democratic countries in West Africa.

“Its decline in the trade rankings is mainly due to a worsening macroeco- nomic environment and falling trade confidence. As economic volatility intensi- fied in Ghana, its ability to facilitate seam- less trade came under strain, making it harder for businesses to access foreign cur- rency, most notably USD, that is required to pay for imports and thus engage in cross- border activities, especially for small and medium-sized enterprises.”

The Barometer is a handy guide for in- vestors and trade partners as the continent moves towards greater economic integra- tion, following the ratification of the Afri- can Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

It offers critical insights into the op- portunities and challenges faced by African businesses and stakeholders in facilitating trade. “The shifts detailed in the report further reflect changing macroeconomic conditions, infrastructure challenges and access to finance amongst many others, which are all impacting the trade environ- ments of the 10 countries featured,” says Philip Myburgh, Group Head of Trade at Standard Bank Business and Commercial Banking.

The Africa Trade Barometer covers seven broad thematic categories of data that im- pact on Africa’s trade, which are then used to score each country. These categories are: trade openness, access to finance, macro- economic stability, infrastructure, foreign trade, governance & economy, as well as traders’ financial behaviour. The SB ATB says its trade attractiveness rankings re- veal a dynamic shift in trade standings among the 10 African nations it covers, “with Tanzania (moving from 8th to 4th ranking), Mozambique (4 to 3), Nigeria (6 to 5) and Zambia (9 to 8) recording im- provements in their positions, while de- clines were recorded for Ghana (3 to 7), Uganda (7 to 9) and Kenya (5 to 6). Mean- while South Africa, Namibia and Angola retained their rankings, at positions 1, 2 and 10, respectively.”

The 10 countries covered by the SB ATB are AfCFTA signatory nations, represent 66% of Africa’s gross domestic product (GDP) and 45% of the continent’s popula- tion.

A mixed outlook

“Overall,” says the report, “the macro- economic conditions across the countries present a mixed outlook, with relatively sustained growth tempered by ongoing challenges. The estimated real GDP growth rate for 2025 stands at 4.3%, reflecting steady progress despite headwinds. Posi- tive developments include infrastructure investments, economic diversification ef- forts, and increased production in sectors like oil, mining, and agriculture.

“However, high inflation, forecast to reach 9.9% in 2024, remains a pressing concern, driven by currency depreciation and worsened by weather events such as severe droughts in Southern Africa and flooding in East Africa.”

Amid these complex dynamics, the Barometer argues, it is evident that the path forward will require a focus on prudent economic management, diver- sified growth strategies, and bolstering resilience against climate risks.

Philip Myburgh adds: “Given our position as Africa’s largest bank, we understand that reliable trade data is essential for making informed business decisions, particularly in the context of a dynamic trade environment. This Is- sue 4 of the Standard Bank Africa Trade Barometer provides businesses, governments and investors with the insights they need to navigate challenges and seize new opportunities on the continent.”

For Issue 4, 2,258 businesses were sur- veyed across 10 African countries: Angola, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Namibia, Ni- geria, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda and Zambia.

Standard Bank began publishing the report in 2022 to address the gap in reliable trade data and promote intra-Africa trade. The SB ATB is based on both primary and secondary data sources. Primary research is gathered through a survey of firms rep- resenting small businesses (69%), large businesses (17%), and corporates (15%) across the 10 African countries that the barometer covers. 

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