The European high-yield bond market is expected to see an increase in defaults at the back-end of this year and into 2025, according to Fitch, with several stressed issuers that it monitors hiring advisers for potential amendments or court processes.

The rating agency said it had added Selecta Group to its list of top market concern bonds, "following the hiring of advisers, weak results and liquidity approaching critical levels".

It also added Maxeda, Lune Holdings and AFE SA SICAV-RAIF (Anacap) to its Tier 2 list of market concern bonds, "due to ongoing operational weaknesses, including challenged liquidity, high leverage and in the case of Lune Holdings, production interruptions".

However, any uptick in defaults is likely to be gradual, if the current trend is maintained. In its report Fitch said the default rate edged up to 2.3% in October, from 2.2% in September and 2% in August.

There was one high-yield bond default in October, from German real estate company Demire Deutsche Mittelstand Real Estate, which Fitch said completed a distressed debt exchange in restructuring a near-term bond.

As part of the restructuring, Demire redeemed €49m of the bond, which had €499m outstanding at the time, at par, as well as extended the maturity of the note to December 31 2027, according to a statement last month from Milbank, which advised Apollo, Demire's majority shareholder.

Demire also made amendments to the terms and conditions of the bonds, including a 5% cash interest rate, collateralisation of the bonds and a revised set of covenants. As part of the transaction, Demire also launched a tender offer backstopped by certain bondholders, repurchasing about €196.7m of the notes. To facilitate the tender offer and the backstop, Apollo granted Demire a shareholder loan for up to €100m.

The bond now has €253.7m outstanding, according to LSEG. It was bid at 89.083, or a yield of 9.4%, on Tuesday.

The high-yield default rate is set to rise further in November, following Fitch’s downgrade of Intrum AB to "D" after its Chapter 11 filing in the US, said Fitch.

Despite the rise in high-yield default rate in October, Fitch says the proportion of credits rated "B–/b–*" with a negative outlook or lower comprised 12.9% of its leveraged credit portfolio in October, which improved from 13.3% in September, and 13.7% in July. The proportion is also lower than the 15.4% recorded at the beginning of the year.

“We have had only a few distressed names this year, the majority of the [high-yield] market is quite healthy,” said a high-yield investor.