Rollout of AI is a ‘megatrend to watch out’

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The one investment megatrend to watch out for is the rollout of AI, which has the potential to reshape companies and economies and one’s investments.

As AI automates tasks that workers perform today manually, we will see a significant uptick in productivity in companies and economies, writes Jakob Westh Christensen, Market Analyst at eToro.

Seeing the megatrend is clear, but positioning your investment is the hard part. We are still in the early stages of this revolution, and I don't expect we will see a measurable productivity impact on companies' and economies' output until 2 to 3 years.

Earnings growth

While the earnings growth (and stock price gains) so far are coming from the chip designers and manufacturers, it's vital for the successful investor to identify the sectors and companies that eventually will benefit from a productivity boost and consequently stronger earnings.

This is likely to be found in companies where they can achieve a high degree of automation, and at the same time have a strong competitive advantage. This ensures that cost cutting results in margin expansion, and not just passing on cost cutting to end users.

For example, the taxi industry could achieve an exceptionally high level of productivity per employee with the introduction of self-driving cars. While initially, the industry could see a margin expansion with a lower employee cost base, this competitive industry could soon see price competition lowering margin to 'normalised levels', benefiting the consumer and, to a lesser extent, the investors.

On the other hand, insurance companies could see significant cost reductions in the underwriting process, which can be highly automated. At the same time, customer habits and customer inertia can result in less price competition, benefitting the company and its investors.