WASHINGTON - A victory by Donald Trump in the Nov. 5 presidential election would jeopardize a projected $1 trillion in low-carbon energy investments and carbon emissions would be 1 billion tonnes more by 2050 than under current policies, according to a new analysis by Wood Mackenzie published on Thursday.

KEY QUOTE

“This election cycle will really influence the pace of energy investment, both in the next five years and through 2050," said David Brown, director of Wood Mackenzie’s Energy Transition Research. "Investments in low carbon supply need to be made in the near term to realize longer-dated decarbonization targets. US carbon emissions could grow, putting net zero out of reach in our delayed transition scenario.”

CONTEXT

Former President Trump has drawn a sharp contrast to his rival, President Joe Biden, who has made curbing climate change and boosting clean energy manufacturing big parts of his presidency and re-election campaign.

Trump has said he would reverse many of the Biden administration's signature climate policies, such as tax credits for electric vehicles and strong emissions standards for cars and power plants. He is expected to once again withdraw the U.S. from the Paris climate agreement.

Trump has courted oil executives' financial support in exchange for favorable energy policies.

BY THE NUMBERS

Wood Mackenzie projects about $7.7 trillion in investment for the U.S. energy sector over 2023-2050 under current policies, which include key incentives enshrined in the bipartisan infrastructure bill and the climate-focused Inflation Reduction Act. It would be $1 trillion less if Republicans reverse key policies bolstering low-carbon energy and infrastructure improvements.

In 2050, Wood Mackenzie projects, net US energy-related CO2 emissions will be 1 billion tonnes higher compared to what they would be under current policies.

The research firm also projects that the total stock of electric vehicles by 2050 would be 50% lower than under current policies since automakers would likely increase investments in hybrid production over electric cars.

(Reporting by Valerie Volcovici; Editing by Aurora Ellis)