Some 100 days after Egypt rose up against the regime of former president Mubarak, the challenges facing the country are far from over, writes Gamal Essam El-Din
Millions of Egyptians led by youth dissenting movements rose up against the corrupt regime of former president Hosni Mubarak on 25 January this year, with 18 days of street protests in Cairo, Alexandria, Suez and other cities finally forcing Mubarak from power on 11 February.
Some 100 days later, though the sense of euphoria remains strong a sense of apprehension and concern looms over Egypt. Incidents of sectarian violence, most recently the assaults by Salafis against Coptic Christian churches in the Cairo district of Imbaba, have given rise to fears that Egypt could fall prey to radical religious forces rather than achieve an orderly transition to democracy and the rotation of power.
Nevertheless, there is no gainsaying that the 100 days of revolution have gone a long way towards dismantled the autocratic legacy of the Mubarak regime. The three main tools of the regime's rule, the State Security apparatus, the former ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) and the upper and lower houses of parliament, have all been dismantled.
Senior officials from the former regime, as well as leading business figures, have been detained on charges of profiteering and the killing of pro- democracy protesters. These have included four of Mubarak's longest-serving henchmen -- former minister of the interior Habib El-Adli, former parliamentary speaker Fathi Sorour, former chairman of the Shura Council, the upper house of Egypt's parliament, Safwat El-Sherif, a leading figure in the NDP, and former Mubarak chief of staff Zakaria Azmi.
Ahmed Nazif, Mubarak's prime minister, is also behind bars pending trial on a plethora of corruption charges. Two ministers from Nazif's government, former minister of finance Youssef Boutros Ghali and former minister of trade and industry Rachid Mohamed Rachid, both of whom have fled the country, are expected to be extradited to Egypt to face trial.
Mubarak himself and his sons Gamal and Alaa were arrested on 13 April, the latter being sent to Tora prison south of Cairo. Mubarak is being held in hospital at the Red Sea resort of Sharm El-Sheikh, and he could be moved to Tora prison to face further questioning on charges of profiteering, abuse of power and the ordering of the killing of protesters in Cairo's Tahrir Square.
Suzanne Mubarak, wife of the former president, is expected to be questioned on charges of embezzling public funds and accumulating a vast and illegal fortune.
One of the most important achievements of the revolution in the eyes of the young people who led it is that the Mubarak family succession, in which Mubarak's son Gamal was slated to inherit power from his father, has been dismantled. Gamal Mubarak and his business cronies are now in jail awaiting trial on charges that include corruption and facilitating the sale of Egypt's natural gas to Israel at knock-down prices.
In addition to these developments, the country's 1971 constitution has been amended to ensure a smooth transition towards democracy. The amendments, announced on 30 March, made it possible for independent and other candidates to stand in the upcoming presidential elections. On the same day, the editors of many of Egypt's state-owned newspapers were fired and the state media given greater margins of freedom.
The revolution has also led to a shake-up in Egypt's foreign relations. The cosy relations that formerly obtained between the Mubarak regime and Israel have been abrogated in favour of attempts to restore relations with Iran and energise ties with African Nile-Basin countries such as Ethiopia, Sudan and Uganda.
Foreign Minister Nabil El-Arabi is meeting with his Iranian counterpart Ali Akbar Salehi at the meeting of Non-Aligned Movement countries in Indonesia at the end of this month, and delegations from Egypt have visited Uganda, Ethiopia and Sudan, restoring warm relations with these countries and helping to ensure that reforms to Nile water agreements will not be at the expense of Egypt.
However, the greatest achievement of all in foreign affairs has been the long-awaited reconciliation agreement between the Palestinian factions of Hamas and Fatah on 3 May. As a result of this and other agreements, Arab states believe that Egypt is now poised to regain its strategic leadership of the region.
Yet, 100 days after the January Revolution there have also been less-welcome developments, at the top of which have been the escalation in incidents of sectarian strife. These have led some analysts and religious moderates to express fears that the revolution could fall prey to Islamist fanatics or encounter stumbling blocks on the way towards a smooth democratic transition.
According to Gamal Zahran, a professor of political science at Suez Canal University and a former independent MP, the country's Islamist movements, particularly the Muslim Brotherhood, have been among the greatest beneficiaries of the revolution.
The constitutional amendments served the Islamist movements, he says, and could result in their gaining power. "We urged the ruling Higher Council of the Armed Forces not to hold parliamentary elections too soon, in order to allow liberal and leftist political forces to compete effectively with the Islamists," Zahran said, noting that the Muslim Brotherhood had been able to buy a building to house its political wing, the newly formed Freedom and Justice Party, and to collect more than the 5,000 signatures required for the party to be licensed.
"This comes at a time when many liberal activists lack the financial and political capacity to set up their own parties ahead of the parliamentary elections," Zahran said. "As a result, we could see the next parliament dominated by Islamists belonging to the Muslim Brotherhood and other groups such as the Salafis and Al-Gamaa Al-Islamiya."
Zahran said that the newly amended political parties law had made it cumbersome for some political forces to set up their own parties. "The law, announced by the army on 28 March, is worse than the one instituted by the Mubarak regime, since it demands that 5,000 signatures be collected from different governorates and that these be registered with public notaries and published in two national newspapers."
The youth coalition that led the January Revolution has also voiced sharp criticism of the army, accusing its leaders of imposing decisions on the nation without consulting the various political forces.
"They rejected the idea of putting a presidential council in power instead of a military junta, and they took us aback by announcing amendments to the constitution and the political parties law," said coalition member Nasser Abdel-Hamid. "The same thing is expected to be true about the amendments to the exercise of political rights law, which will regulate the parliamentary elections scheduled for next September."
Fears of Egypt turning into a state run by religious parties have been heightened by the rise of the Salafist elements and their clashes with Copts on 7 May. The Salafis organised protests in front of the Coptic Cathedral and US embassy in Cairo, protesting against the US killing of Osama bin Laden and demanding the release of Coptic women rumoured to have converted to Islam.
"In spite of their small numbers, the Salafis have become a headache, and they could even drive the country into a Lebanese-style scenario of sectarian strife," warned Zahran. "These Islamist forces are now reaping the benefits of freedoms made available by the revolution, though they played no role in it."
Other analysts stress that the revolution is under threat from a continuing lack of security in the country and economic paralysis. "It is true that the State Security apparatus has been dismantled, but the fact remains that this has given rise to a security vacuum," said Amr El-Shobaki, a political analyst at Al-Ahram.
El-Shobaki added that this had "opened the door wide to thuggery and mob incidents, the last of which was the clash in Imbaba. Some people now believe that freedom means the ability to take the law into your own hands, which is a huge threat to the revolution and political stability. The military council should use an iron fist to stem the tide of chaos until the security apparatus can be restructured."
El-Shobaki pointed with particular concern to protests in the Upper-Egyptian governorate of Qena, where sit-ins had obstructed trains running between Cairo and Upper-Egyptian cities. "They had a right to object to the appointment of a Copt as the new governor, but these protests are a dangerous development, as people have taken the law into their own hands,"
Meanwhile, the revolution has also given rise to significant economic losses. Egyptian foreign- exchange reserves fell from $36 billion in January to $28 billion at the end of April, according to the country's Central Bank, being a loss of $8 billion over four months.
"This has been due to a large drop in receipts from tourism, as well as in remittances from Egyptians working abroad," said an expert from the bank. Egypt's economy contracted by seven per cent in the first quarter of 2011, while exports decreased by 40 per cent and tourism lost some $1 billion a month.
"Although the counter-revolutionary forces have been eradicated, it remains to be seen how the Islamist forces can be dealt with and how security and economic growth can be brought about," El-Shobaki said.
© Al Ahram Weekly 2011
