The definition of real money is usually those accounts that are not speculating, and with speculators selling the dollar aggressively this year, it's real money that is likely to be supporting the greenback.
This is why heavy speculative selling is not moving the U.S. currency much in the run up to the first hike of U.S. interest rates since December 2018, and the upward trajectory for U.S. interest rates is why real money must buy.
Investors must account for a big divergence in interest rates between the United States where policy makers want to adjust for inflation and the euro zone, Japan and Switzerland that are delaying tightening or are unwilling to change altogether.
Rises in option vols reflect the needs of real money with increasing demand for insurance to account for the changes in currencies that should evolve from rate divergence in the next two years.
Where speculators usually have sights set on the short-term, real money accounts are longer-term focused. It may be a long time before they reconsider their investment in the dollar.
(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own) ((jeremy.boulton@thomsonreuters.com))
