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Dubai aviation sector’s is forecast to contribute 196 billion UAE dirhams ($53 billion) or 32% of its GDP by 2030, up from AED 137 billion in gross value added reported in 2023.
The core impact of the sector is expected to grow to AED 132 billion in gross value added in 2030, comprising 22% of GDP, while supporting 386,000 jobs, according to a new report by Emirates Group, Dubai Airports, and research firm Oxford Economics.
Additionally, aviation-facilitated tourism is expected to contribute AED 63 billion in 2030 (10% of Dubai’s GDP). Jobs generated in the sector is set to grow to 816,000, making up one-quarter of all jobs in the emirates by 2030.
Striking Boeing workers
Dubai’s Emirates has charted an expansion plan that is central to fostering the growth of the aviation industry. However, the airline is not ruling out the issue of Boeing’s delivery issues as a concern.
An ongoing Boeing machinists strike has further impacted airlines, with last evening’s news of a new offer rejected by striking workers implying this could result in further setback for the aviation manufacturer. Boeing said last week it expects a reduction in deliveries going forward due to the strike.
While its total order book stands at 315 wide-body aircraft, the airline expects to take the number “350-strong” by the early 2030s, according to Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed Al Maktoum, Chairman and CEO, Emirates Airline and Group.
Yet, significant delays with the 777x order by Boeing prompted Sheikh Ahmed to also weigh in on the development at the Arabian Travel Market in May, saying that the airline was not happy with the delays, which “puts a lot of pressure on the current Emirates seat capacity”.
Emirates President Tim Clark has been more vocal about Boeing’s troubles, speaking earlier this month about holding a “serious conversation” with the US plane maker’s decision to further delay the delivery of its 777X aircraft.
“Emirates has had to make significant and highly expensive amendments to our fleet programmes as a result of Boeing’s multiple contractual shortfalls, and we will be having a serious conversation with them over the next couple of months,” Clark said in a statement, Bloomberg reported, adding that given Boeing’s current situation "I fail to see how Boeing can make any meaningful forecasts of delivery dates."
Emirates is expected to make a decision this year on a purchase of further Boeing or Airbus models for its fleet beyond 2028/29.
In the meanwhile, to meet the growing demand, Emirates is scaling up its retrofit programme. It also expects the delivery of 65 Airbus A350s from this year until end of 2028.
(Writing by Bindu Rai, editing by Seban Scaria)
