Kuwait’s oil GDP will rise by 0.9% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) in the fourth quarter of 2024 and 4% year-on-year (YoY) in 2025 if its oil production is restored fully, the National Bank of Kuwait (NBK) said in a new report.

In June, OPEC+ announced members’ 2024 voluntary production cuts, of which Kuwait’s share is 135,000 barrels per day. The cuts will be gradually unwound over the course of a year from October.

However, NBK said the oil producers’ group has left open the possibility that it could pause and even reverse these supply gains if market conditions dictate.

Oil GDP was down 6.4% YoY in Q4 2023 QoQ, with Kuwait maintaining crude oil production at 2.55 million bpd in line with its OPEC+ production cut obligations.

The Gulf nation’s 2023 oil GDP contracted by 4.3%, a marked turnaround from the robust expansion witnessed in 2022 when a tighter oil market had prompted Kuwait and its OPEC counterparts to raise production.

On the other hand, GDP in the non-oil sector contracted -2.3% YoY in Q4 23 for a fifth consecutive quarter.

For 2023, non-oil activity fell by 2.9%, a second consecutive annual decline following 2022’s fall of 0.1%.

"This is the weakest reading in the available series and well below the 2011-2019 average of +3.3% per year," the report said.

(Editing by Seban Scaria seban.scaria@lseg.com)