Saudi Prince Mohammed Bin Nayef's appointment to the Kingdom's powerful interior ministry job - replacing Prince Ahmad bin Abdel-Aziz Al Saud -- is being seen by many as a precursor for higher office.
Saudi royal succession has been under global scrutiny especially after the demise of two successive Crown Princes within the space of eight months.
While the ascendancy of 76-year-old Salman bin Abdel-Aziz al-Saud as the Crown Prince in June ensured continuity, the old guard that has ruled the country since 1932 could possibly give way to a new generation of Saudi princes, analysts had said.
King Abdullah Bin Abdulaziz Al Saud's Allegiance Commission, which consists of the direct descendants of King Abdul Aziz - the country's founder - is expected to play a key role in keeping continuity, and it will be interesting to see how the council conducts itself in the future.
"Given the ruling family's deference to age, it is possible that another son of King Abdel-Aziz will be chosen, with the new interior minister, Prince Ahmed bin Abdel-Aziz al-Saud, probably the leading contender. However, it is plausible that King Abdullah or, more probably, Crown Prince Salman, may seek to engineer a generational switch," the EIU had noted in an earlier report.
Their prediction seems to be gaining ground with 53-year-old Prince Mohammed's appointment.
"The promotion of Mohammed bin Nayef bin Abdel-Aziz Al Saud to be the new Saudi interior minister has come as a surprise to most Western analysts," said Jane Kinnonmont, Senior Research Fellow at Chatham House, in a comment.
"However, it is likely to be welcomed in Western capitals as a sign that a younger generation of Al Saud princes are taking on a greater role in decision-making in a system sometimes described as a gerontocracy, where septuagenarians and octogenarians rule a population that is mostly under thirty."
Prince Mohammed, of course, is the son of Prince Nayef, the crown prince who died earlier this year and was the powerful force behind the Interior Ministry.
Prince Mohammed had worked at the ministry under his watchful eye, although his uncle Prince Ahmad served as deputy and eventually took over. Howevr, Prince Mohammed's star has been shining brighter than other princes after he narrowly escape an Al-Qaeda suicide bombing attack.
"Prince Ahmad had been seen in the West as the most likely successor to the throne," said Ms. Kinninmont. "It was pointed out at a seminar in the UK parliament only last week that in theory, if Prince Ahmad lived as long as King Abdullah has so far, he could still be king in 2017. It is not certain that he is entirely ruled out of the succession, as the reason for his departure hasn't been made clear.
"But the promotion of Prince Mohammed suggests Saudi rulers are increasingly aware of the need for new blood - and more energetic younger figures - at the top."
Saudi Arabia has some strong security challenges ahead as the new generation gears up to take over. Unrest in the East among the Shiaa minority remains a challenge, and which some analysts think led to the departure of Prince Ahmed.
Meanwhile the threat of Al-Qaeda and jihadist elements remains a clear and present danger in the country.
It is also unclear how the Arab Spring that's being played out in other regional countries will influence Saudis.
While Saudis have watched the events unfolding in North Africa from a distance, the revolution has struck closer to home with unrest in Oman, Bahrain and now Kuwait.
While the authorities pumped billions into infrastructure development, unemployment remains stubbornly high. Saudi unemployment stood at 11% last year and has only marginally fallen to 10.5% this year, according to Jadwa Investments. The bank expects unemployment to fall below 10% in 2013, although youth unemployment remains much higher.
But the Saudi authorities know economic engagement will not be enough, as the increasingly educated and media-savvy Saudi population demands greater social liberties.
Perhaps it's just as well that the new generation of Saudis will be led by a new generation of the Kingdom's leaders.
Here is a list of other key Saudi figures:
Here is a list of candidates and influencers in the complex network of Saudi family ties and alliances:
PRINCE SALMAN BIN ABDULAZIZ AL SAUD (born 1935):
Governor of Riyadh from 1962 to 2011, Prince Salman is appointed Crown Prince, Minister of Defence and Vice-Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques and is one of the most senior Princes.
He and his family own a newspaper group including pan-Arab daily Asharq al-Awsat and al-Eqtisadiah.
PRINCE AHMED BIN ABDULAZIZ AL SAUD (Born 1942)
Former minister of interior, Prince Ahmed was educated at University of Southern California and University of Redlands. Earlier in his career, he was tasked with introducing reforms in the Eastern Province in the early 1980s to alleviate the problems of the kingdom's Shi'ite minority. He is the youngest of the Sudairi brothers.
PRINCE TURKI AL-FAISAL (Born 1945)
Born in 1945 and son of King Faisal, he served as Saudi intelligence chief and as ambassador in the UK and United States before retiring in 2006. He reportedly had disagreements with King Abdullah who preferred briefings from Prince Bandar Bin Sultan, who has deep-rooted ties with Washingtons political elite.
PRINCE BANDAR BIN SULTAN (Born 1950)
Prince Bandar was the influential Saudi ambassador to Washington between 1983 and 2005 so much so that was nicknamed Bandar Bush due to his close ties to George Bush Senior and George Bush Junior.
He is Secretary General of the Saudi National Security Council but had reportedly fallen out of favour with King Abdullah and other princes. But he seems to have returned to the fold with his appointment as Director General of the powerful Saudi Intelligence Agency in July 2012.
PRINCE ABDUL-RAHMAN BIN ABDUL-AZIZ (Born 1931)
A senior member of the Saudi royal family and an ex Vice Minister of Defence & Aviation, and the eldest surviving member of the Sudairi brothers.
TURKI II BIN ABDUL-AZIZ AL SAUD
Reportedly resided in Cairo and Miami and holds no official position in the country.
KHALID AL-FAISAL, (BORN 1940) GOVERNOR OF MAKKAH PROVINCE
Widely viewed as one of the most liberal princes who has eased the religious police's influence in eastern city of Jeddah. He owns Al-Watan newspaper, the country's most liberal daily. A painter, poet and art patron, he is viewed as too liberal to ascend the throne.
SAUD AL-FAISAL, (BORN 1941) FOREIGN MINISTER
One of the more well-known Saudis in the diplomatic community, Saud Al Faisal could well be one of the longest serving foreign ministers in the world, having held on to his post since 1975. A Princeton graduate, he is the third son of King Faisal and a close ally of King Abdullah. He reportedly has Parkinson's disease.
KHALID BIN SULTAN, (BORN 1949) DEPUTY DEFENSE MINISTER
Son of the late Crown Prince Sultan, he led Arab forces during the 1991 war to oust Iraqi forces from Kuwait. He is deputy defence minister and owner of the influential pan-Arab daily newspaper al-Hayat. He led Saudi forces in their war against Yemeni rebels who strayed into Saudi territory in 2009, says Reuters.
MUHAMMAD BIN FAHD, (BORN 1951) GOVERNOR OF EASTERN PROVINCE
Governor of the restive but oil-rich Eastern Province since 1985, he has reportedly mediated with the Shia community to prevent protest in Qatif. A graduate of the University of California at Santa Barbara, he is married to Nayef Bin Abdulazizs daughter.
MUTAIB BIN ABDULLAH, (BORN 1952) COMMANDER OF NATIONAL GUARD
The son of King Abdullah, Prince Mutaib has been Commander of the Saudi National Guard since 2010, a powerful corps that manages domestic security. His appointment was seen as a signal that the King was slowly giving the reins of the countrys most powerful institutions to the next generation.
MUHAMMAD BIN NAYEF, (BORN 1959) INTERIOR MINISTER
The son of former Interior Minister Prince Nayef, he heads Saudi Arabia's minister of interior. The Prince earned his stripes fighting Al-Qaeda and even survived an assassination attempt. His rise to the position makes him a favourite to eventually rule the country.
ABDUL-AZIZ BIN ABDULLAH, (BORN 1962) DEPUTY FOREIGN MINISTER
The third son of King Abdullah, he is also an advisor to King Abdullah and has been playing a key role in shaping the Kingdoms Syrian policy.
BANDAR BIN ABDUL-AZIZ, (BORN 1923)
Oldest living son of the late King Abdul Aziz ibn Saud. Wields some influence behind the scenes but has not participated in running the countrys affairs in any capacity.
MISHAAL BIN ABDUL-AZIZ, (BORN 1926) CHAIRMAN OF THE BAY'AH COUNCIL
Once seeing himself as a potential crown prince, Prince Mishaal was Minister of Defence between 1951-53 and was left out key positions for decades, until he was appointed as chairman of the allegiance council by King Abdullah.
MUTAIB BIN ABDUL-AZIZ, (BORN 1931) FORMER MINISTER FOR MUNICIPAL & RURAL AFFAIRS
Reportedly lives in the Trump Tower in New York City, Prince Mutaib once served as Deputy Minister of Defence and Minister of Public Works and Housing.
TALAL BIN ABDUL-AZIZ, (BORN 1931)
Father of the billionaire Prince Waleed, Prince Talal was known as the Red prince and led the reformist Free Princes Movement. In 1958, he proposed a constitution, elections and a reformist agenda which was rejected by the establishment. His controversial stance makes his son Prince Waleed unlikely to play a public role in governments.
NAWWAF BIN ABDUL-AZIZ, (BORN 1933)
Brother of Prince Talal and close ally of King Abdullah. He is a former Minister of Finance and also served as King Faisal's Special Adviser for Gulf Affairs from 1968-1975. He is a former Director General of Saudi Arabia's intelligence agency Al Mukhabarat Al A'amah following Prince Turki's resignation.
Badr bin Abdul-Aziz, (born 1932) former Deputy Commander of the Saudi Arabian National Guard
Prince Badr was involved in the Free Princes Movement and lived in exile in Beirut and Cairo. After reconciling with the family, he was appointed by King Faisal at the deputy commander of the Saudi Arabian National Guard between 1967 to 2010. He remains an influential but low-key member of the family.
Sattam bin Abdul-Aziz, (born 1941) Governor of Riyadh
Son of King Abdul-Aziz, he was appointed Governor of Riyadh in 2011. He studied business administration from the University of San Diego in 1965.
Muqrin bin Abdul-Aziz, (born 1945) former Director General of Saudi Intelligence
The former head of Saudi intelligence, he has risen through the ranks in the past few years, but was replaced by Bandar Bin Sultan in July 2012. He has been playing key mediation roles in Pakistan, Afghanistan and now Syria and remains a key ally of King Abdullah.
alifarabia.com 2012
