The world is on track to be 4 degrees warmer, which will be marked by 'extreme heat-waves' and rising 'life threatening' sea levels, according to a World Bank funded report published close to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) event being hosted by Doha this week.
These climatic changes will have huge consequences not only for human life, but also for economies across the world, including the Gulf and the wider Middle East economies.
After slumbering in the wilderness for a few years, climate change proponents have sprung back to life, especially as a wave of natural catastrophes have swept up the world.
U.S. President Barack Obama has already drawn first blood by mentioning the devastating effects of climate change on the U.S. economy in his victory speech in early November, suggest changes to U.S. policy which would impact oil and gas companies.
U.S. policy changes will have consequences for the rest of the world.
The World Bank report says that it is impossible to gauge the true human and economic impact of a 4 degrees warmer world, but we have already had glimpses of what it could look like. A drought in the United States impacted global wheat prices this summer, while Sandy storm in New Jersey closed down the New York Stock Exchange, leaving millions of global investors in the lurch.
"Given that uncertainty remains about the full nature and scale of impacts, there is also no certainty that adaptation to a 4°C world is possible," the report warns.
"A 4°C world is likely to be one in which communities, cities and countries would experience severe disruptions, damage, and dislocation, with many of these risks spread unequally. It is likely that the poor will suffer most and the global community could become more fractured, and unequal than today."
Climate change gets little coverage in the Middle East even though carbon emissions of the UAE, Qatar and Kuwait are the highest in the world.
The World Wild Life Fund (WWF) recently ranked Qatar as the country with the largest ecological footprint per capita in a report. The tiny country is joined by neighbours Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates as the three nations with the largest ecological footprint - far exceeding other countries.
Read report: ME's Ecological Footprint
The World Bank's doomsday scenario suggests that the region will be among the worst-affected by a 4-degree-warmer world.
1 HOTTER STILL
Sub-tropical Mediterranean, northern Africa and the Middle East are likely to see monthly summer temperatures rise by more than 6°C, says the World Bank funded report.
"Temperatures of the warmest July between 2080-2100 in the Mediterranean are expected to approach 35°C - about 9°C warmer than the warmest July estimated for the present day. The warmest July month in the Sahara and the Middle East will see temperatures as high as 45°C, or 6-7°C above the warmest July simulated for the present day."
2 NOT A DROP TO DRINK
A warmer world will have severe consequences for the world, but especially for regions like the Middle East where water is already a scarce resource.
"Some estimates indicate that a 4°C warming would significantly exacerbate existing water scarcity in many regions, particularly northern and eastern Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia, while additional countries in Africa would be newly confronted with water scarcity on a national scale due to population growth," the report warns.
3 A RIVER CALLED NILE
River basins such as the Nile and Ganges are vulnerable to seasonal changes, which would have an adverse impact on water resources.
"Mean annual runoff is projected to decrease by 20 to 40 percent in the Danube, Mississippi, Amazon, and Murray Darling river basins, but increase by roughly 20% in both the Nile and the Ganges basins."
4 POOR HARVEST
Water scarcity will be a huge problem for places like Egypt.
Sea-level rise would likely impact many mid-latitude coastal areas and increase seawater penetration into coastal aquifers used for irrigation of coastal plains.
5 FOOD INSECURITIES
Gulf countries are already 'food insecure' and looking to secure food supplies across South Asia, Africa and CIS states. Any large-scale extreme events, such as major floods that interfere with food production, could impact food inflation and rising imports.
6 SEAPORTS
"Seaports are an example of an initial point where a breakdown or substantial disruption in infrastructure facilities could trigger impacts that reach far beyond the particular location of the loss," the report warns.
With ports playing a huge role in the economies of Gulf states, this could emerge as an especially painful consequence of climate change.
7 COASTAL CITIES
Coastal cities are especially vulnerable to rising sea levels.
"Because of high population densities and often inadequate urban planning, coastal cities in developing regions are particularly vulnerable to sea-level rise in concert with other impacts of climate change."
Cities vulnerable are in Mozambique, Madagascar, Mexico, Venezuela, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam, says the report without mentioning any Middle East state.
"The projected 4°C warming simply must not be allowed to occur--the heat must be turned down. Only early, cooperative, international actions can make that happen," the report warns.
But as the world climate leaders meet in Doha from November 26 to December 7, they seem further than ever on agreeing on a global policy to combat climate change.
© alifarabia.com 2012
