Bund, Gilts Correcting Higher Within a Powerful Downtrend

Friday, Feb 15, 2013

 
   By Francis Bray, CFTe MSTA 
   A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN 
 

LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:

 
Futures:          BUND       GILT       EURIBOR   SHORT STG 
                  Mar        Mar        Sep       Dec 
Previous Close    142.59     115.31     99.670    99.440 
3 Day Trend       Bearish    Bearish    Bullish   Bearish 
Weekly Trend      Bearish    Bearish    Bullish   Range 
3rd Resistance    143.11     116.25     99.750    99.520 
2nd Resistance    142.86     115.98     99.705    99.480 
1st Resistance    142.74     115.60     99.675    99.460 
Pivot*            142.38     115.07     99.658    99.433 
1st Support       142.45     114.96     99.650    99.410 
2nd Support       142.18     114.56     99.635    99.400 
3rd Support       141.84     114.39     99.610    99.370 
 

Intraday BUND: Resistance at 142.74/142.86 is under attack, following Thursday's strength. Wednesday's low at 141.84 was strengthened on Thursday's push and close above 142.45, and a bull wave extension toward the week's high at 143.11 will be enhanced on a break above 142.86. Support at 142.18 is aided by single print support from Thursday's Market Profile, and only below 142.18 would bring the focus back onto Wednesday's 141.84 low.

Weekly chart BUND trend: Bearish.

Intraday GILT: Thursday's bull hammer candle suggests there is scope for a recovery to 115.60, and potentially 115.98. However, the rally is considered corrective in nature, and only a sustained break above 115.98 would question the broader downtrend. Projected resistance lies at 115.60. A setback below 114.96 would re-expose Thursday's low at 114.56, and the broader, powerful downtrend remains on course for Fibonacci targets at 114.39 and 114.12.

Weekly chart GILT trend: Bearish.

Intraday EURIBOR September 2013: Pivotal resistance at 99.705 is within striking distance, following Thursday's strength. An expanding triangle consolidation pattern that based at 99.610 this week has been completed, and a push above Thursday's 99.675 high would induce further gains to the 99.705 resistance area. The 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the broader 99.915/99.470 decline bolsters the 99.705 resistance area, defending 99.750. Support at 99.635 limits scope for corrective weakness.

Weekly chart EURIBOR trend: Bullish.

Intraday SHORT STERLING December 2013: The sharp setback from Tuesday's 99.480 high continues to dominate the daily chart. The 12-week falling resistance line at 99.480 is solid, and bears will look to protect the 99.480 high and prompt a return to Thursday's 99.410 low, which is adjoined to the 99.400 support level. A push below 99.400 is anticipated in the coming sessions, providing a signal for more weakness to 99.370 and 99.340.

Weekly chart SHORT STG trend: Range.

* The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.

For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"

By Francis Bray; Dow Jones Newswires; +44 (0)207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com

Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.

Data provided by CQG International Ltd.

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(END) Dow Jones Newswires

15-02-13 0725GMT